水资源短缺的社会适应能力理论及实证——以黑河流域为例  

Social adaptive capacity for water resource scarcity in human systems and case study on its measuring

作　　者：程怀文[1] 李玉文[2] 徐中民[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院寒区旱区环境与工程研究所内陆河流域生态水文重点实验室,兰州730000 [2]浙江财经学院工商管理学院,杭州310018

出　　处：《生态学报》2011年第5期1430-1439,共10页Acta Ecologica Sinica

基　　金：中国科学院西部行动计划项目(二期)项目(KZCX2-XB2-09)

摘　　要：水资源短缺已成为制约干旱-半干旱内陆河流域可持续发展的瓶颈,社会适应能力理论为解决水资源短缺问题提供了新的思路和方法。从人类生态系统角度分解社会适应能力,辨明了社会适应能力结构性成分,并利用网络层次分析(ANP)方法,构建了缓解水资源短缺的社会适应能力定量评价模型。然后以黑河流域中游甘州区为研究区,进行了水资源短缺的社会适应能力定量评价的案例研究。结果表明研究区缓解水资源短缺的社会适应能力综合指数为2.411,处于中等水平,有待进一步提高;在灌区尺度上,缓解水资源短缺的社会适应能力水平与受灌区水资源管理背景和意识的影响。在缓解水资源短缺的社会适应能力系统中,研究区有两个关键资源有所欠缺,同时人口自然增长率和人均综合用水量较低、社会公平和节水意识水平相对较高,但人们安全感和政策稳定性不强并缺乏信任,廉政水平、政府管理能力和社会经济资源水平需要进一步提高。旨在为水资源可持续利用研究提供一种新的分析角度,为决策者采取新的社会、经济、制度等对策提供科学依据支撑。Water scarcity is a main constrain for sustainable development in semi-arid regions.Social adaptive capacity theory offers a new idea for resolving water resource scarcity problem.The concept of Social adaptive capacity is put forward based on understanding the complex relation between human and ecosystem.As we known,nature is not a balanced system filled with nice biogeochemical cycles,circulating in a predictable pattern,but instead consist of complex and adaptive systems,where extreme events,such as floods and droughts,form a natural part of the reality.Nature is full of surprises,sudden shocks,which hit at random,resulting in complete reorganization of the playing field on which all biological life forms depend.In order to cope with randomness,shocks and extreme events,ecosystem has an inbuilt capacity to absorb shocks while maintaining function.This capacity of ecosystem is defined as the ＂adaptive capacity＂.Human systems can also plan and implement adaptation strategies in an effort to reduce potential vulnerability or exploit emerging opportunities even further.We call ＇social adaptive capacity＇ for this capacity of plan and implement adaptation strategies in an effort to reduce potential vulnerability or exploit emerging opportunities even further.Social adaptive capacity theory is a new for dealing with natural resource problem,and offers a new idea for resolving resource scarcity problem.There is a big challenge for human that natural resources are lack,especially water resources.Societies may be able to live with water scarcity,provided they can adapt through doing things with water in a better,more efficient way,and perhaps doing entirely other things than agriculture,then an index portraying the adaptive capacity of a society will provide a relevant picture of the impending challenges of that society. In this paper,we introduce the origin of concept of social adaptive capacity for water scarcity,from the understanding that humans are completely intertwined with ecosystem,and discuss the struc

关 键 词：水资源短缺 社会适应能力 ANP 人类社会系统 黑河流域 

分 类 号：TV213.4[水利工程—水文学及水资源]