中国可再生能源发展综合评价与结构优化研究  

On Comprehensive Evaluation and Optimization of Renewable Energy Development in China

作　　者：李虹[1] 董亮[2] 段红霞[3] 

机构地区：[1]北京大学经济学院,北京100871 [2]中国科学院过程工程研究所,北京100190 [3]厦门大学中国能源经济研究中心,厦门361005

出　　处：《资源科学》2011年第3期431-440,共10页Resources Science

基　　金：2007年美国能源基金会项目:"中国电力产业提高能源效率和减少污染的管制行动";2009年中国博士后科学基金:"可持续发展与社会公平--基于能源补贴理论与政策实践的研究"(项目编号:20090460202);2009年教育部学社会规划项目:"中国电力价格体制改革研究--煤电价格联动的政策效应"(项目编号:09YJA790006)的阶段性研究成果

摘　　要：中国实现2020年可再生能源占能源消费总量的15%的目标需要科学的规划,不同类型的可再生能源发展需要有合理的比例配置。为此,本文根据"自底向上"的建模方法构建了中国可再生能源综合评价与结构优化模型(REAO模型),模型集成两个模块:第一,基于层次分析法(AHP)构建可再生能源综合评价模块,从经济、技术、资源和环境四个方面设置核心指标,各级指标最终耦合为可再生能源综合利用指数从而实现对不同可再生能源发展进行综合评价并进行优先级排序;第二,基于综合评价结果与线性规划模型,构建优化模块对可再生能源发展的配额权重进行优化配置。实证结果显示,受成本、技术、资源和二氧化碳排放等条件约束,在2020年可再生能源比重占到15%的框架下,水电、风能、太阳能、生物质能、地热能、海洋能分别占38.5%、35.7%、16.8%、3.0%、3.0%、3.0%时为最优比例。本文的研究为中国政府制定各种可再生能源发展规划及相应的产业扶持政策提供科学参考。Renewable energy development is crucial for future energy demand and safety, as well as sustainable economic development. Facing increasingly serious environment pollution and resource depletion problems in the context of rapid economic development, particularly the unreasonable coal-dominant energy consumption structure which has caused a large amount of carbon dioxide emissions, the Chinese government is aiming to increase the proportion of renewable energy up to 15% in the overall primary energy mix. Along with this, a series of policies for supporting renewable energy were and are to be implemented. To achieve this goal, one core aspect is to optimize the proportion among various types of renewable energy due to their varying resource characteristics and technological basis. Based on the ＂bottom to up＂ approach, the authors established a hybrid assessment and optimization model, i.e., Renewable Energy Assessment and Optimization （REAO）. This model involves two parts. 1） Based on the analytical hierarchy process （AHP）, a comprehensive assessment model and an indicator system including a series of core indicators depicting economy, technology, resource, and environment were proposed. The assessment model is able to rank different types of renewable energy according to their comprehensive utilization index values. Assessment results show that for the base year, the comprehensive utilization index values of wind energy, hydro-power, solar energy, biomass energy, geothermal energy, and ocean energy is 82.93, 87.24, 80.02, 75.07, 71.65, and 72.13, respectively. In addition, scenario assessments were performed for 2015 and 2010. Results show that although the rank seems to be similar, wind energy and solar energy show high potential for future development; 2） Based on the ranked results and linear programming, an optimization model of optimizing the structure of 6 types of renewable energy was constructed. The target was to make the comprehensive merit highest under a series of constraints of resourc

关 键 词：可再生能源 AHP REAO模型 结构优化 

分 类 号：F124.5[经济管理—世界经济]