能源与非能源生产要素替代弹性研究——基于超越对数生产函数的实证分析  

An Investigation of the Elasticity of Energy-Nonenergy Factor Substitution: An Empirical Analysis Based on the Translog Production Function

作　　者：杨福霞[1] 杨冕[2] 聂华林[1] 

机构地区：[1]兰州大学经济学院,兰州730000 [2]兰州大学资源环境学院,兰州730000

出　　处：《资源科学》2011年第3期460-467,共8页Resources Science

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目:"西部全面建设小康社会中的‘三农’问题及对策研究"(编号:04-ZD018)

摘　　要：在能源战略中,作为投入要素的能源能在多大程度上被其他生产要素替代,且这种替代效应对未来能源节约将发挥何种作用,已引起学者们较多的关注。基于1978年-2008年中国经济增长、能源消费、资本存量及劳动力的时间序列数据,运用向量误差修正模型,在实证分析经济增长与能源消费因果关系的前提下,计算了能源与非能源要素间的替代弹性,同时,考察了各投入要素技术进步的差异。实证结果表明,经济增长与能源消费存在双向因果关系,且资本存量和劳动力对能源消费有一定冲击作用;在样本期内,能源与资本、劳动力之间的平均替代弹性分别为0.49、1.03,且各投入要素技术进步差异具有收敛性。In the context of increasing energy shortages and degrading environment worldwide, researchers have been paying much attention to the degree of non-energy factors substituting for energy inputs, which is viewed as one of the most useful measures to conserve energy. However, a host of existing literature investigating the elasticity of substitution between energy and non-energy factors did not present the prior test for the production factor attribution of energy. There is little consensus regarding the degree and direction of interfactor substitution. Given that the in-plan energy prices controlled by the central government in China cannot reflect to the relation of supply and demand for energy and even the scarcity of energy resources, the cost function is rejected. On the other hand, the statistical errors of various data sets may lead to different conclusions for the causality between economic growth and total energy consumptionso it is indispensable to firstly test the causality between the two. Based on time series on economic growth, total energy consumption, capital stock, and labor over the period 1978-2008 for China, this paper applies vector error-correction model to test the causality between economic growth and total energy consumption. Empirical results indicate that there exists bidirectional causality between them both in the short and long run, and the change of capital stock and labor would impact on total energy consumption, respectively. Then we estimated the translog production function on GDP using the principal component approach, and calculated the elasticity value of energy-nonenergy factors substitution. Results suggest that the elasticity value of energy-labor substitution is 1.03, larger than that of energy-capital of 0.49. This implies that energy is substitutable by labor and capital, and labor substitutes for energy more easily than capital does during the study period. This finding is attributable to the typical pattern of labor-intensive industry depending on labor abundance. It is

关 键 词：向量误差修正模型 因果关系 超越对数生产函数 产出弹性 替代弹性 

分 类 号：F224[经济管理—国民经济] F206F124