经济周期与保险周期——中国案例与国际比较  

Insurance Cycle and Business Cycle

作　　者：孙祁祥[1] 郑伟[1] 肖志光[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京大学经济学院

出　　处：《数量经济技术经济研究》2011年第3期3-20,50,共19页Journal of Quantitative & Technological Economics

摘　　要：本文使用研究经济周期的指标和方法，对保险周期的基本特征及其与经济周期的关系进行了系统的比较研究。结果表明，中国保险业在1980-2008年间经历了频率相对较低、幅度相对较大的扩张型周期性波动；新兴市场国家和工业化国家保险周期的特征及影响因素存在显著差异，前者波动幅度较大，主要受经济周期的影响，后者则主要取决于微观市场环境的变化。By using the basic methods and indicators of measuring business cycle, we conduct a comparative study about the characteristics of the insurance cycle and its relationship with the business cycle. Our study contributes several important findings. On the one hand, China＇s insurance industry, as a typical case of emerging markets, experiences comparatively lower frequency, greater volatility and asymmetrical （deepness of peaks） cyclical fluctuation during the period of 1980-2008. On the other hand, distinct difference exists between emerging markets and industrialized countries either in characteristics or determinants of the insurance cycle. Specifically, the former has substantially great volatility and is mainly determined by the business cycle, while the later results from micro- market environment.

关 键 词：保险周期 经济周期 滤波 比较研究 

分 类 号：F019.3[经济管理—政治经济学]