短期国际资本、广义货币供应量与经济波动  

Short-term International Capital,Broad Money Supply and Economic Growth

作　　者：周庭佐[1] 张谊浩[1] 伦晓波[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京大学商学院,江苏南京210093

出　　处：《预测》2011年第2期7-11,共5页Forecasting

基　　金：教育部人文社科基金资助项目(09YJC790146)

摘　　要：本文构建起短期国际资本对实体经济影响的理论模型,并对短期国际资本、广义货币供应量和国民生产总值之间的关系进行实证研究。研究发现,短期国际资本影响实体经济的传导机制是:在短期内,短期国际资本流动显著引起广义货币供应量变化,广义货币供应量的变化又会显著导致国民生产总值出现波动。本文进一步结合脉冲响应函数和方差分解研究短期国际资本流动规模波动率与经济增长率之间的关系,发现短期国际资本流动规模波动率是经济增长率发生波动的单项Granger原因;经济增长率的波动中有约20%是由于短期国际资本流动规模波动率发生异动所致。In this paper,a theoretical model concerning the influence of Short-term International Capital flow on the economic growth has been built.In addition,empirical research on the interrelationship of Short-term International Capital flow,broad money supply and economic growth has been conducted.The research shows the transmission mechanism through which Short-term International Capital flow has an effect on economic growth： within a short period,Short-term International Capital flow greatly affects the scale of broad money supply,which subsequently leads to a significant fluctuation in GDP.Furthermore,with the help of impulse response function and variance decomposition,the author analyzes the relationship between volatility of the scale of Short-term International Capital flow and the economic growth rate.The study reveals that the volatility in the scale of Short-term International Capital flow is the granger reason for economic growth rate;About 20% of drastic fluctuations in the economic growth rate were due to abnormal volatility of the scale of Short-term International Capital flow.

关 键 词：短期国际资本流动 广义货币供应量 经济波动 

分 类 号：F831.7[经济管理—金融学]