可竞争产品、贸易收支与人民币汇率——基于我国出口品市场结构的研究  

The Contestable Products、Trade Balance and RMB Exchange Rate:The Research on China's Export Market Structure

作　　者：胡靖[1] 李天栋[2] 

机构地区：[1]同济大学经济与管理学院,上海200092 [2]复旦大学金融研究院,上海200433

出　　处：《预测》2011年第2期17-20,39,共5页Forecasting

摘　　要：虽然金融危机的冲击暂时缓解了我国贸易失衡的表象,但危机过后,贸易失衡的结构性问题却依然突出。本文基于我国出口品市场结构,建立了一个可竞争条件下贸易收支决定的简约模型和实证检验方程。在协整检验的基础上建立向量误差修正模型(VECM),对各变量的冲击进行脉冲响应函数分析。结果显示,我国出口产品的市场结构的确与贸易收支之间存在内在的联系。Although the strike from financial crisis temporarily eased the appearance of China＇s trade imbalance,however after the crisis,structural problems of trade imbalance are still outstanding.The assumption that China＇s main exports are fully competitive cannot be denied.On this basis,this paper constructed a simple model how the trade balance decided and an empirical examination equation in fully competitive conditions.Based on co-integration test,the paper established a vector error correction model（VECM）to analyze the impact of the variables＇ change in the impulse response function.The empirical analysis shows that China＇ trade balance was intrinsically linked with the market structure of exports indeed.

关 键 词：可竞争产品 贸易收支 人民币汇率 市场结构 

分 类 号：F7[经济管理—产业经济]