甘加高山草原蝗虫预测模型的研制  

The Establishment of the Forecast Model for the Grasshoppers on Ganjia High Mountain Grassland

作　　者：刘长仲[1] 杨延彪 马隆喜 陈宏伟 冯光翰[1] 

机构地区：[1]甘肃农业大学植物保护系,兰州730070 [2]夏河县草原工作站,夏河747100

出　　处：《四川草原》1999年第3期36-39,共4页Journal of Sichuan Grassland

摘　　要：利用在夏河县甘加高山草原１９８９ ～１９９４ 年共６ 年的系统调查资料，分别建立了狭翅雏蝗以及蝗虫混合种群的发生期和发生量与气象因子之间的回归预测模型。通过对历史资料进行检验，符合率均为１００ ％ ，预报值相对准确率平均达８７ ％ 以上。Based on investigation data of 6 years from 1989～1994 on Ganjia High Mountain Grassland in Xiahe County,Gansu Province,the prediction models of the occurrence period and number of Chorthippus dubius (Zubovsky) and mixed populations were established.By validation on the historical data,their coincidence rate was 100%,and the accurate rate was more than 87%.

关 键 词：高山草原 蝗虫 多元回归 预测模型 

分 类 号：S812.6[农业科学—草业科学]