流动性过剩、超额外汇储备与通货膨胀关系的研究——来自我国1997年～2009年月度数据的证据  

A Research into the Relationship among Excess Liquidity,Excessive Foreign Exchange Reserve and Inflation——Evidence from the Monthly Data of Our lountry from 1997 to 2009

作　　者：陈文政[1] 

机构地区：[1]上海金融学院,上海201209

出　　处：《经济经纬》2011年第2期143-147,共5页Economic Survey

基　　金：国家社科基金项目(08BJL014)

摘　　要：笔者阐述了超额外汇储备下的流动性过剩及其表现，根据经济学供需模型的原理机制，对当前超额外汇储备下流动性过剩与通货膨胀的成因进行了理论分析，并根据中国1997年～2009年的月度数据，运用VAR模型对其进行了实证研究。研究证明，外汇储备的增加对我国的物价确实带来了冲击，但是影响很小，然而汇率的变动会带来我国物价的剧烈波动。The authors discusses excess liquidity and its representation in the condition of excessive foreign exchange reserve, and according to the principle mechanism of the supply and demand model of economics, makes a theoretical analysis of the causes of excess liquidity and inflation in the condition of excessive foreign exchange reserve. The author makes an empirical research of it with VAR model on the basis of the monthly data from 1997 to 2009. The research demonstrates that the increase in foreign exchange reserve real- ly has impact on the prices of our country, but the impact is small. However, the change in exchange rate will cause great fluctuation of the prices of our country.

关 键 词：外汇储备 流动性过剩 汇率 通货膨胀 

分 类 号：F830[经济管理—金融学]