渭干河-库车河三角洲日照时数变化特征  

VARIATION OF SUNSHINE HOUR IN DELTA OASIS OF WEIGAN AND KUQA RIVERS

作　　者：唐金[1] 李霞[1] 闫俊杰[2] 

机构地区：[1]新疆农业大学草业与环境科学学院,新疆乌鲁木齐830052 [2]中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所,新疆乌鲁木齐830011

出　　处：《井冈山大学学报（自然科学版）》2011年第1期55-61,共7页Journal of Jinggangshan University (Natural Science)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(40701012);新疆维吾尔自治区"十一五"重大专项基金项目(200733144-1)

摘　　要：根据渭干河-库车河三角洲3个气象站50年(1960-2009)逐月日照时数资料,建立渭干河-库车河三角洲年日照时数序列,利用线性趋势估计、3年滑动平均、距平与累积距平、滑动t检验和灰色预测等方法,全面分析了渭干河-库车河三角洲50年来日照时数变化的基本特征。结果表明:(1)50年间,渭-库三角洲年日照时数呈增多趋势,其变化倾向率为0.75h/10a,增多趋势不明显。春季、秋季和冬季日照时数呈减少趋势,其变化倾向率分别为-14.53h/10a、-3.86h/10a和-6.29h/10a;夏季日照时数呈增加趋势,其变化倾向率为8.65h/10a。(2)年日照时数在1974年发生了由多到少的突变,在1996年发生了由少到多的突变。(3)建立灰色预测GM(1,1)模型对渭-库三角洲2010～2012年的年日照数进行预测,发现在今后3年内渭-库三角洲的年日照时数将会有所增加,年日照时数在2012年达到2874.5h,超过50年来的极大值。In this paper,the series of annual sunshine hours in the Delta Oasis of Weigan and Kuqa Rivers in Xinjiang are developed using the sunshine hours data from 3 meteorological stations during the period of 1960-2009.The basic features of sunshine hours are analyzed using the methods of 3-year moving average,linear regression,abrupt t test,grey forecast,etc.The main results are as follows：（1）The annual sunshine hours in the area is increasing at the trend rate of 0.75h/10a.The fluctuation of sunshine hours is not significant.The tendency appears decreased mainly in spring,autumn and winter with the trend rates of-14.53h/10a,-3.86 h/10a and-6.29h/10a,respectively.However,the tendency in summer is increasing with the trend rate of 8.65h/10a.（2） The sunshine hours changed abruptly from less to more and from more to less in 1974 and 1996,respectively.（3） The predicted amount of sunshine hours for 2010 to 2012 from the established grey dynamic model indicates that the annual sunshine hour is reaching to 2874.5 hours in 2012,which is the maxium during the during 50 years.

关 键 词：日照时数 变化特征 灰色预测 渭干河-库车河三角洲 新疆 

分 类 号：P412.14[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]