海外油气投资目标筛选决策支持系统研究  

Research on Decision Support System to Choose Overseas Oil and Gas Investment Based on Multi-level Gray Model

作　　者：赵旭 

机构地区：[1]中国石油大学博士后科研流动站,北京102249 [2]中国石油化工股份有限公司石油勘探开发研究院,北京100083

出　　处：《技术经济与管理研究》2011年第3期8-12,共5页Journal of Technical Economics & Management

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(06BJY042)<建立海外稳定的油气资源供给渠道研究>;国家社会科学基金项目(07CJY026)<国际油价变动趋势与我国石油安全对策研究>

摘　　要：受全球一体化趋势的影响,油气资源与世界经济、政治、外交和军事的关系更加密切,围绕油气资源展开的国际竞争变得异常激烈。随着不确定外部环境的无序演化,油气安全的影响因素日益复杂。海外油气资源的争夺和中国海外油气资源供给渠道的稳定,需要科学的投资目标筛选决策。基于海外油气投资环境的动态演化和石油公司跨国经营非合作博弈特点,全方位构建了包含动态指标的海外油气目标国家投资环境评价指标体系,运用多层次灰色模型建立了海外油气投资目标筛选模型,通过编程建立和实现其决策支持功能。为系统评估海外油气资源争夺的战略机遇提供了方法借鉴。Under the trend of globalization, the relationship of Oil and gas resource and economy, politics, diplomacy and military all over the world has been more and more inseparable. Competition of overseas oil-gas resource is becoming more and more serious with the oil and gas safety problem has become a new focus in the world. For the purpose of stabile supply of overseas oil-gas resources in China, it is necessary to establish a scientific decision method to optimize asset structure. Based on the dynamic development of overseas oil and gas investment environment and the Characteristics of non-cooperative game of transnational business, this paper established an index system which contained dynamic indexes, utilized multi-level gray model to choose overseas investment objectives and programmed to establish and achieve their decision support capabilities. It provide a method of reference to systematically estimate the strategic opportunity of overseas oil and gas resource.

关 键 词：油气投资 动态博弈 多层次灰色模型 决策支持系统 海外投资 油气资源 

分 类 号：F416.22[经济管理—产业经济]