运用Gumbel-Logistic模式模拟区域暴雨的试验  

The Application of Gumbel-Logistic Model to Simulate the Regional Rainstorm

作　　者：谢敏[1] 江志红[1] 丁裕国[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京信息工程大学大气科学学院江苏省气象灾害省部共建重点实验室,江苏南京210044

出　　处：《沙漠与绿洲气象》2011年第1期1-5,共5页Desert and Oasis Meteorology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(40875058);江苏省气象灾害重点实验室项目(KLME050209)共同资助

摘　　要：根据中国江淮地区近57a逐日降水量观测资料,应用二维极值Gumbel-Logistic模型分析区域暴雨最大峰值以及相应暴雨站数的联合分布。文中使用矩法估算分布参数,根据随机变量的边缘分布和条件概率分布,可以推导出联合重现期。结果表明利用该模型描述区域暴雨峰值及相应站数的联合分布是较为适宜的。Based on the observed daily rainfall data during 1951-2007 over Yangtze-Huaihe area,this study proposes the use of Gumbel logistic model to analyze the joint distribution of regional annual maximum storm peaks and the corresponding storm station number which are mutually correlated.In this paper,the moment method was used to estimate the distributed parameters.On the basis of the marginal distributions of these random variables and the conditional probability,the associated return periods can be readily deduced.Results show that the model is suitable for representing the joint distribution of correlated storm peaks and station number that are Gumbel distributed.

关 键 词：暴雨 暴雨站数 数学模型 重现期 应用研究 

分 类 号：P456.8[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]