国际贸易乘数与国际金融乘数研究  

International Trade Multiplier and International Finance Multiplier

作　　者：马丹[1] 华圆[1] 

机构地区：[1]浙江工商大学金融学院,浙江杭州310018

出　　处：《国际商务（对外经济贸易大学学报）》2011年第2期63-73,共11页INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目"全球经济失衡与汇率和工资政策搭配"(70973111);浙江省高校人文社会科学"金融学"重点研究基地项目的资助

摘　　要：本文首先在Krugman的国际金融乘数模型的基础上引入产品市场,建立了一个既包含国际贸易乘数效应又包含国际金融乘数效应的两国经济依存模型。在该模型中,各国的资产市场与产品市场通过财富效应和收入效应建立互动关系,两国的资产市场之间通过国际金融乘数效应建立互动关系,两国的产品市场之间通过国际贸易乘数效应建立互动关系。然后本文通过该模型分析了当本国资产市场上出现负向需求冲击时的后果。分析结果显示,本国资产市场上出现的负向需求冲击会直接导致本国资产价格下跌,而本国资产价格下跌一方面通过财富效应导致本国产出下降,另一方面通过国际金融乘数效应引发外国的资产价格下跌,本国产出下降又会通过国际贸易乘数效应导致外国产出下降。Through introducing goods market into intemational finance multiplier model created by Krugman, this paper develops a two-country interdependence model, which includes international trade multiplier effect and international finance multiplier effect. In this model, assets market is connected with goods market through wealth effect and income effect, home assets market is connected with foreign assets market through international finance multiplier, and home goods market is connected with foreign goods market through intemational trade multiplier. Then it analyzes the consequence of a negative demand shock to home assets market. The theoretical analysis shows that a negative demand shock to home assets market will cause a decrease in home assets price directly. The decrease in home assets price will lead to a fall in home output through wealth effect on one hand, and will lead to foreign assets price decline through international finance multiplier on the other hand. Then the decrease in home output will cause a decrease in foreign output through international trade multiplier.

关 键 词：国际贸易乘数 国际金融乘数 资产市场 产品市场 

分 类 号：F224[经济管理—国民经济] F740F831