我国未来能源投资需求预测及特点分析  

China's Future Energy Investment Demand Projection and Its Features

作　　者：张跃军[1,2] 王兆华[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]北京理工大学管理与经济学院,北京100081 [2]北京理工大学能源与环境政策研究中心,北京100081

出　　处：《数学的实践与认识》2011年第6期83-89,共7页Mathematics in Practice and Theory

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(71001008);教育部人文社会科学研究项目基金(09YJC630011);高等学校博士学科点专项科研基金(20101101120041);北京理工大学优秀青年教师资助计划(2010Y1317)

摘　　要：持续的能源投资是经济持续发展的必要保障.鉴于我国能源投资的复杂性,基于系统动力学和成本预测方法,预测了我国2006-2050年期间的能源投资需求,分析了各能源品种的投资需求特点及不确定性因素.结果发现,我国能源投资将保持持续增长态势,但能源投资占GDP的比重不断下挫.而且,电力投资将一直占据我国能源投资的主导地位.Sustainable investment to energy industry proves tile essential basis for sustainable economic development. This paper, using the system dynamics approach and cost prediction method, projects China＇s energy investment demand during 2006-2050, explores the energy investment features of every energy source, as well as the uncertainties for China＇s future energy investment. The results indicate that China＇s energy investment may see a continuous increase in the projecting period and the ratio of energy investment to GDP may gradually decline. Additionally, the investment of power industry always dominates the China＇s energy investment.

关 键 词：能源投资 投资需求 预测 不确定性 

分 类 号：F224[经济管理—国民经济] F206