房地产市场广义虚拟财富效应测度研究  

Wealth Effect Measurement of the Real Estate Market from General Virtual Economy

作　　者：王子龙[1] 许箫迪[2] 

机构地区：[1]南京航空航天大学经济与管理学院,江苏南京210016 [2]南京师范大学公共管理学院,江苏南京210097

出　　处：《中国工业经济》2011年第3期15-25,共11页China Industrial Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目"风电产业政策分析模型与智能模拟研究"(批准号71003048);教育部人文社会科学基金项目"中国房地产市场预警机制研究"(批准号09YJC790147)

摘　　要：中国居民的财富特征与发达国家居民的财富特征明显不同,这是由于我国房地产市场发展程度、金融市场自由化程度、住房自有率的高低、房地产市场的投机程度以及人们对待房地产财富的观念等方面的差异所导致。本文基于广义虚拟经济的视角,利用我国30个大中城市1998—2009年的季度数据,建立房地产财富效应测度模型,对广义虚拟经济条件下房地产财富效应进行了实证检验。计算结果表明:我国30个大中城市的广义虚拟房地产财富效应表现形式存在明显个体差异,大部分城市的房地产财富效应为负,30个城市的总体房地产财富效应也为负,且系数较小不显著。这表明我国近年来房价持续上涨对居民消费产生了一定的"挤出"效果和"抑制"作用,但从全国总体来看这种"挤出"和"抑制"作用并不明显。China＇s personal wealth characteristic is obviously different from the developed countries. This is due to the differences of real estate market development degree, financial market liberalization degree, privately- owned house rent, real estate market speculative degree and the concept of people treating real estate wealth in China. In order to reveal the relationship of real estate prices and consumer, real estate wealth effect was measured by the model of the quarter data of China＇s 30 cities from 1998 to 2009 on the basis of general virtual economy. The conclusion indicates that the general real estate wealth effect of China＇s 30 cities shows obviously different in the individual differences. Most of the city＇s real estate wealth effect is negative. Overall real estate wealth effect of 30 cities is also negative, and coefficient is lesser, not significant. The empirical result shows that real estate wealth has significantly promoted residents＇ consumption in China in recent years, but real estate wealth effect has diminished with the growth of real estate wealth. China＇s real estate wealth effect is not very obvious from the national overall.

关 键 词：广义虚拟经济 房地产市场 财富效应 房地产价格 

分 类 号：F293[经济管理—国民经济]