我国粮食主产区粮食巨灾保险纯费率的厘定及政策建议  

Pure Ratemaking and Policy Recommendations of Grain Catastrophe Insurance in Major Grain Producing Areas in China

作　　者：梁来存[1] 

机构地区：[1]湖南师范大学商学院,湖南长沙410081

出　　处：《农业现代化研究》2011年第2期175-178,共4页Research of Agricultural Modernization

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目"我国粮食安全自然风险影响的统计测度与保险定价研究"(编号09BTJ016)

摘　　要：粮食保险属于政策性农业保险,准确的费率厘定将有助于政府制订出科学的保险支农政策。粮食巨灾事件属于极值事件,故本文基于极值理论进行研究,根据诊断以GPD作为粮食灾损数据的尾部分布,采用极大似然法估计GPD参数,按照费率厘定的期望损失法思路,探讨了粮食巨灾保险的纯费率厘定方法,进而对主产区粮食巨灾保险的纯费率进行了厘定。厘定结果表明,各主产区的纯费率较高且差异明显,北方主产区的平均纯费率高于南方主产区。据此提出政策建议:政府应加大对各主产区粮食巨灾保险的扶持力度,对各主产区的保费补贴应依费率不同而区别对待,对北方主产区的扶持力度应相对更大。Grain insurance belongs to policy-guided agricultural insurance.Accurate rate-making will be conducive to the policy-making of agricultural insurance.Grain catastrophe events belong to extreme value events,so the study is based on extreme value theory.The paper regards GPD as the tail distribution of grain calamity loss data after diagnosis.The GPD parameters are estimated by maximum likelihood.According to the thought of Loss Expectancy Method,the paper probes into the net premium rate calculation method of grain catastrophe insurance.And then an empirical study is done on the net premium rate calculation of grain catastrophe insurance in major producing areas in China.The results state the net premium rates are high and different from others in these areas and the north＇s is higher than the south＇s on the average level of net premium rates.According to the results,the policy recommendations are made that the Government should support grain catastrophe insurance of major producing areas and the subsidy sum should be proportional to the premium rates in these areas and the supportive degree to the north should be bigger than to the south relatively.

关 键 词：粮食主产区 粮食巨灾保险 GPD模型 纯费率厘定 

分 类 号：F326.11[经济管理—产业经济]