基于MLE模型和EPANET的城市供水系统风险评价  

Risk Assessment of Urban Water Supply Systems Based on MLE Model and EPANET Software

作　　者：牛志广[1] 陈发[1] 徐宗武 张颖[3] 李浩宾[1] 陆仁强[1] 

机构地区：[1]天津大学环境科学与工程学院,天津300072 [2]天津空港经济区水务有限公司,天津300308 [3]南开大学环境科学与工程学院,天津300071

出　　处：《中国给水排水》2011年第7期63-66,共4页China Water & Wastewater

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(51008207);天津市科技支撑计划重点项目(08ZCGYSF00100;09ZCGYSF00600)

摘　　要：为有效解决城市供水系统可能面临人为威胁的不确定性问题,建立了城市供水系统面临人为威胁时风险的定量化评价方法。以华北某市KGWL加工区的供水系统为例,首先利用马尔科夫潜在影响模型(MLE)对城市供水系统可能面临的人为威胁进行分析,定量化计算了城市供水系统的人为威胁水平;然后,利用EPANET软件对不同人为威胁作用下城市供水系统的运行工况进行模拟,计算了不同人为威胁发生后所产生的后果。根据上述研究,最终实现了城市供水系统面临人为威胁时风险大小的定量化计算和评价,研究结果可为城市供水系统安全运行和升级改造提供决策依据。In order to solve the uncertainty problem of the man-made threats to urban water supply systems, a quantitative risk assessment method was proposed. Taking the urban water supply system in KC, WL processing zone of a city in North China as example, firstly, the Markov Latent Effects （ MLE ） model was used to analyze the man-made threats to the urban water supply system, and the man-made threat level was computed quantitatively. Then, the EPANET software was used to simulate the operating conditions of the urban water supply system in different man-made threat scenarios, and the threat consequences were also computed quantitatively. Finally, the risk of urban water supply system was computed and evaluated quantitatively. The research results can be used as the deeision support for the safety operation and upgrading of urban water supply systems.

关 键 词：城市供水系统 人为威胁 风险评价 马尔科夫潜在影响模型 EPANET 

分 类 号：TU991[建筑科学—市政工程]