农业干旱灾害风险评价及预测预警研究进展  

Advances in risk assessment and forecast warning of agricultural drought disasters

作　　者：杨志勇[1] 刘琳[1,2] 曹永强[2] 于赢东[1] 严登华[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国水利水电科学研究院水资源研究所,北京100038 [2]辽宁师范大学城市与环境学院,辽宁大连116029

出　　处：《水利经济》2011年第2期12-17,75,共6页Journal of Economics of Water Resources

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)(2010CB951102);国家自然科学基金(51009148;50979035);水利部公益性行业科研专项(200801001);中国水利水电科学研究院开放研究基金(IWHRKF201018)

摘　　要：在总结国内外关于农业干旱定义的基础上,对适应于农业干旱灾害风险评价的不同指标进行分析对比,归纳了农业干旱灾害风险评价方法并介绍其应用情况,总结了农业干旱预测预警理论和方法研究进展,结合农业、水文等相关学科的最新进展对农业干旱灾害风险评价和预测预警的发展趋势做出展望。Based on the worldwide definitions of agricultural drought, comparative analysis of different indices suitable for risk assessment of agricultural drought disasters was performed. The risk assessment methods for the agricultural drought disasters were summarized, and the relevant applications were introduced. The theories, methods and advances of forecast warning for the agricultural drought were reviewed. The trends of risk assessment and forecast warning for the agricultural drought disasters were prospected combined with the latest development of agricultural and hydrological disciplines.

关 键 词：农业干旱 评价指标 风险评价 预测预警 

分 类 号：S16[农业科学—农业气象学]