基于CO_2排放因素模型的“脱钩”指标构建与评估——以山西省为例  

The construction and evaluation of "decoupling" indexes based on the model of factors decomposition of CO_2 emission:a case study of Shanxi Province

作　　者：王云[1] 张军营[1] 赵永椿[1] 郑楚光[1] 

机构地区：[1]华中科技大学煤燃烧国家重点实验室,湖北武汉430074

出　　处：《煤炭学报》2011年第3期507-513,共7页Journal of China Coal Society

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(40972102;50936001);国家重点基础研究发展计划(973)项目(2010CB227003)

摘　　要：依据Tapio脱钩指标和Kaya恒等式,运用LMDI分解法分别构建了二氧化碳(CO2)"脱钩"弹性指标和努力指标扩展分解模型,并对山西省CO2"脱钩"和低碳经济发展情况进行定量分析。结果表明,脱钩弹性指标和脱钩努力指标均显示山西省CO2的"脱钩"情况有所改善,已呈现出"弱脱钩"的低碳经济特征;能源强度降低是导致CO2"脱钩"的关键性因子,其脱钩努力指标从2001年的-0.239 2逐年增加到2008年的0.542 4,这主要源自工业领域技术的进步和能源效率的提高,产业结构和能源结构调整等其他措施并没有显示出明显的减排效果;假定在以上条件均不变的情况下,CCS技术将成为实现CO2减排和"强脱钩"的关键性因素。该研究尝试将脱钩指标和CO2排放因素分解模型进行结合,考虑了CCS因素在减排和"脱钩"方面的作用。The expand decomposition model of decoupling elasticity and effort index of CO2 emissions was constructed by adopting Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index（LMDI） method based on the basic principle of Kaya identities and Tapio index,which was adopted to analyze quantitatively the decoupling of CO2 and low-carbon economic development in Shanxi Province.The results indicate that the decoupling elasticity index and the decoupling effort index indicate that the situation of CO2 ＂decoupling＂ is improved and a ＂weak decoupling＂ of low-carbon economic characteristics emerge;reduction of energy intensity is the key factor leading to decoupling of CO2,whose decoupling effort coefficient increases from-0.239 2 in 2001 to 0.542 4 in 2008,mainly from advances in technology and energy efficiency,the adjustment of industrial structure and energy structure and other measures do not show the effects of emission reduction significantly.Assuming the CCS（Carbon Dioxide Capture and Storage） technology is implemented in the same conditions as above,CCS technology will become the key factors of CO2 reduction and ＂strong decoupling＂.It attempts to combine carbon dioxide decomposition model with decoupling index,and considers the role of CCS factors in CO2 reduction and decoupling.

关 键 词：CO2排放 脱钩指标 因素分解法 二氧化碳捕集和封存技术 

分 类 号：F120.3[经济管理—世界经济]