东部沿海国内旅游发展的动态实证研究  

Dynamic Research on the Development of the Eastern Coast Domestic Traveling

作　　者：张毓[1] 孙根年[1] 薛佳[1] 

机构地区：[1]陕西师范大学旅游与环境学院,陕西西安710062

出　　处：《旅游论坛》2010年第6期782-788,共7页Tourism Forum

基　　金：国家社会科学基金资助项目(03BJY0088);陕西师范大学研究生培养创新基金(2010CXS030)

摘　　要：以1995年-2008年国内旅游客流量和旅游收入为指标,分析了东部沿海10个省市国内旅游动态发展状况,即旅游发展的时间同步性及区域响应。结果显示:东部沿海10省区国内旅游发展具有较高的时间同步性,国内旅游波动周期"同涨同落";依据增长指数和相关系数的差异,将东部沿海10省区划分为两种类型。然而由于政策推进、资源开发、交通区位等因素的差异,各省区国内旅游的发展具有不同的区域响应,分两个时段分别统计各省区国内旅游的基期值和平均增长率,依据各阶段的基期值和平均增长率的差异,划分出国内旅游发展的地区响应类型。Based on the domestic tourists and the income of 10 provinces in the eastern coastal China from 1995 to 2008,this article analyzes the synchronicity and regional response of the domestic tourism development.The results show： the domestic tourism development is highly synchronized in 10 provinces along the eastern coast of China.The development grows slowly and stably from 1995 to 2001,and the growth is accelerated from 2002 to 2008;the periodical fluctuation of domestic tourism experience ＂up with the same drop＂.In this paper,based on differences between the exponential growth and correlation coefficients,the 10 provinces along the eastern coast are divided into 2 types.However,due to differences among tourism policy,tourism investment,resource conditions,transportation,location and other factors,these provinces have different responses in the development of domestic tourism.This article takes two periods respectively,according to basic period value and average growth rate from 1995 to 2001 and from 2002 to 2008.Based on the difference between basic period value and average growth rate,the domestic tourism can be divided into different kinds of regional response.

关 键 词：国内旅游 时间同步性 区域响应 东部沿海 

分 类 号：F592.7[经济管理—旅游管理]