基于贝叶斯网络的路网脆弱路段识别模型  

A Model for Identifying Vulnerable Links of Road Networks Based on Bayesian Networks

作　　者：尹洪英[1] 徐丽群[1] 

机构地区：[1]上海交通大学安泰经济与管理学院,上海200052

出　　处：《系统管理学报》2010年第6期656-661,共6页Journal of Systems & Management

基　　金：国家"863"计划课题(2006AA11Z209)

摘　　要：界定了路网脆弱性的内涵,提出了基于贝叶斯网络的路网理论分析框架,应用贝叶斯网络的双向推理技术定量地分析B每个路段对路网系统整体故障影响的大小,并在此基础上,分别基于故障树和最小路集构建了路网脆弱环节识别的贝叶斯网络模型;最后,通过实例说明利用贝叶斯网络方法识别路网脆弱环节的具体步骤。研究结果表明,该方法可以快速、有效地识别路网的脆弱环节,为路网问题的解决提供决策支持。This paper defines the meaning of road network vulnerability and then proposes a road network conceptual framework to analyze the failures effect of each link on the road network based on Bayesian networks.At last,this paper also sets up Bayesian network models of identifying vulnerable links for road network based on fault tree and minimal path sets,two examples are used to illustrate steps of this method in the application of identify the weak links of road networks.The results show that Bayesian networks can find weak links in the road networks quickly and effectively.This provides effective decision support for road network problems.

关 键 词：路网 脆弱性 贝叶斯网络 

分 类 号：U491[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]