中国经济周期的“双重性波动”:理论与实证分析——基于市场成长的视角  

The Dual Fluctuation of China's Business Cycle:Theory and Empirical Analysis Based on Market Growth

作　　者：王磊[1] 李勇[1] 王满仓[1] 

机构地区：[1]西北大学经济管理学院,陕西西安710069

出　　处：《当代经济科学》2010年第6期1-8,共8页Modern Economic Science

基　　金：西北大学2009年研究生交叉学科创新项目(项目编号:09YJC12)

摘　　要：本文将我国的经济波动分为市场性波动和体制性波动两个方面,二者共同构成了转轨时期我国经济周期波动的非典型特征:由'大起大落'向'高位收敛'转变。据此,本文通过研究得出下述结论:(1)体制性波动是导致我国经济周期呈现出'大起大落'的重要因素;(2)体制性波动的减弱和市场性波动的增强导致了我国的经济周期从'大起大落'向'高位收敛'转变;(3)'市场性波动'在风险和信息方面所引起的波动要显著性的小于'体制性波动'。本文的实证分析也证明了上述结论。最后,本文得出结论并指出了进一步的研究方向。This paper divides China's business cycle into two aspects: market fluctuation and mechanism fluctuation,both of which determine China's atypical cycle characteristics of the transformation from big fluctuation to convergence in high level.We conclude that mechanism fluctuation is one of the most important factors affecting China's big fluctuation,and that the strengthening market fluctuation is the cause that results in the transformation from big fluctuation to high level convergence.Our empirical analysis also confirms these conclusions.Finally,we points out possible directions for future researches.

关 键 词：市场性波动 体制性波动 “放-活”模型 高位收敛 

分 类 号：F124.8[经济管理—世界经济]