气候变化对天山北坡奎屯河高山区地表径流的影响  

Impact of Climate Change on the Surface Runoff in the Kuytun River Basin on the North Slope of Tianshan Mountains

作　　者：阿依努尔.孜牙别克 高婧[2,3] 

机构地区：[1]新疆塔城水文水资源勘测局,新疆塔城834700 [2]兰州大学大气科学学院,甘肃兰州730000 [3]新疆乌苏气象局,新疆乌苏833000

出　　处：《冰川冻土》2010年第6期1186-1193,共8页Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology

基　　金：全球变化研究国家重大科学研究计划项目(2010CB951404;2010CB951402);中国科学院冰冻圈科学国家重点实验室2010年开放基金项目(SKLCS2010-04);国家自然科学基金项目(40771047);国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)项目(2007CB411507)资助

摘　　要：采用奎屯河流域的乌苏、沙湾气象站1960—2009年50 a来的气温、降水量资料和奎屯河将军庙水文站的降水量、径流量资料,分析了气温、降水、冰川等变化对奎屯河出山口地表径流的影响.结果表明:将军庙水文站年降水变化与径流量呈显著正相关;尽管气温呈上升趋势,但年径流与平原地区和出山口的气温相关不很密切,气温可通过影响蒸发增加山区消耗水量,减少径流.然而,气温变暖会加剧冰雪消融,使冰川退缩变薄,特别是消耗冰川积累量来增加河川径流.在奎屯河出山口地表年径流量中,与20世纪80年代相比,冰川径流增加了5.7%,多年平均情况下消耗冰川积累的融水径流约占冰川径流的30%.同时,随气候变化的极值化,要注意高山地区降水减少和汛期气温降低引起河川径流减少,降水、气温高值引起的年径流增大与洪水危害,以及引起河川径流的年际变幅增大,并对水利工程造成的影响.有关气候变化对河川径流定量预测有待今后进一步探讨.Base on the meteorological observation data of temperature and precipitation at Usu and Shawan stations from 1960 to 2009 and precipitation and runoff data at Jiangjunmiao Hydrological Station of Kuytun River,the impacts of temperature,precipitation and glacier change on surface runoff are analyzed.Furthermore,the variation cause was discussed.It is found that precipitation and runoff at Jiangjunmiao Station were significant positive correlated,although the temperature is warming.However,the annual mean runoff and the temperature in plain areas and mountain outlets are not related very well.The temperature rising makes evaporation increasing,and then more water consumed,as a result,runoff decreasing.However,with the global warming,more and more snow and ice will be melted,glaciers retreating and thinning will be intensified,especially consuming the ice in the accumulation zone to increase glacial runoff.It is estimated that for the annual runoff from the mountains in the Kuytun River the contribution of glacial runoff increased 5.7% as compared with that in the 1980s.For many years,30% of glacier runoff is due to glacier＇s volume decrease.Meanwhile,with appearance of extreme climate events,it is necessary to pay more attention to the runoff decreasing due to precipitation decreasing in mountain areas and air temperature dropping in the high water season,and to runoff increasing due to precipitation and air temperature increasing abnormally,which will trigger runoff sharply increase and result in large flood disaster,damaging hydraulic facilities.To quantitatively predict the river runoff resulted from climate change is a task from now on.

关 键 词：气候变化 奎屯河区 地表径流 冰川消融 

分 类 号：P339[天文地球—水文科学]