钢铁工业发展周期及中国钢产量饱和点预测  

Iron and Steel Industry Development Cycle and the Peak Output of Crude Steel in China

作　　者：郭利杰[1] 

机构地区：[1]国网能源研究院能源供需所,北京100052

出　　处：《科技和产业》2011年第3期5-8,57,共5页Science Technology and Industry

摘　　要：通过对美国、日本钢铁工业发展阶段的分析和产量曲线拟合,总结钢铁工业发展规律,验证产业生命周期理论的可行性。基于目前我国钢铁工业处于成长期向成熟期过渡阶段的判断,使用产业生命周期曲线拟合预测,得到中国粗钢产量预计在2020年前后达到饱和,饱和值水平约7.7~8.5亿吨。Through analyzing the development stage of iron and steel industry,fitting the output curve of crude steel in the United States and Japan,the paper can summarize the law of development of iron and steel industry,and verify the feasibility of industry life-cycle theory.Now the iron and steel industry in China is passing the growth stage to maturation stage,using the industry life-cycle curve,the paper finally gets that the crude steel output of China is expected to reach saturation in 2020,and the saturation volume is about 770 to 850 million tons.

关 键 词：钢铁工业 产业生命周期理论 饱和值 

分 类 号：F407.3[经济管理—产业经济]