辽宁省农业气象灾害对农业生产的影响及评估  

Evaluation and Effect of Agro-meteorological Disasters on Agricultural Production in Liaoning Province

作　　者：李晶[1] 林蓉[1] 张海娜[1] 吕志红 王艳[1] 胡春丽[1] 李菲[1] 刘晓梅[1] 

机构地区：[1]沈阳区域气候中心,辽宁沈阳110016 [2]辽宁省抚顺市气象台,辽宁抚顺113006

出　　处：《安徽农业科学》2011年第6期3563-3566,共4页Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences

基　　金：沈阳区域气候中心科技开发基金项目(201015)

摘　　要：利用辽宁省1971~2008年农业生产资料及气象灾害资料,计算了干旱、洪涝、大风冰雹、低温冻害的影响权重、成灾率及其变异值,进一步分析了农业气象灾害的时间序列变化特征,并对农业气象灾害进行了等级划分和综合评估。结果表明,粮食产量与相应年农业气象灾害存在负相关关系,1989、1997、2000年农业气象灾害较为严重,粮食产量相应严重减产。辽宁省农业气象灾害小灾情出现频率最大,占总年数的39%,同时农业气象灾害对农业生产的危害随年代逐渐增大;干旱影响权重为63.0%,成为当前影响农业生产的主要因素。Based on statistic data of agricultural production and meteorological disasters in Liaoning Province from 1971 to 2008,the effect weight,disaster rate and variance value of main agro-meteorological disasters including drought,flood,wind,hail and frozen injury were calculated,and the variation characteristic of time series of agro-meteorological disasters was further analyzed,while the grade division and comprehensive evaluation of agro-meteorological disasters were carried out in our paper.The results showed that there was a negative correlation between grain yield and degree of agro-meteorological disasters,and agro-meteorological disasters were relatively serious in 1989,1997 and 2000,with the reduction of grain yield.Meanwhile,the occurrence frequency of light disasters was highest,accounting for 39% of total year,and the adverse effect of agro-meteorological disasters on agricultural production became more and more severe decade by decade;the effect weight of drought reached 63.0%,so drought was the main agro-meteorological disasters influencing agricultural production.

关 键 词：农业气象灾害 农业生产 影响评估 辽宁 

分 类 号：S166[农业科学—农业气象学]