The temporal and spatial evaluation on China＇s agricultural policy output since 1978  

作　　者：YU Jianhui 

机构地区：[1]Key Laboratory of Regional Sustainable Development Modeling, CAS, Beijing 100101, China [2]Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China [3]Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100039, China- -

出　　处：《Journal of Geographical Sciences》2011年第3期475-488,共14页地理学报（英文版）

基　　金：Knowledge Innovation Project of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, No.KZCX-YW-Q06

摘　　要：Since reform and opening up, how much contribution has China＇s implementation of new agricultural policy made to agricultural output？ This paper is trying to establish an agricultural policy output econometric model for doing a quantitative analysis of China＇s new ag- ricultural policy. The results show that China＇s agricultural policies on agricultural output have an average contribution rate of about 7% since 1978, which is consistent with the OECD＇s basic forecast. There are obvious temporal and spatial differences. Generally speaking, we can divide the contribution of agricultural policy into three periods, which are the start-up phase from 1978 to 1991 （14 years）, the stationary phase from 1992 to 2002 （11 years） and the rising phase from 2003 to 2008 （6 years）. In space, the contribution of agricultural policy underwent a process from the all-low in the start-up phase, the gradual increase in the sta- tionary phase to the all-high in the rising phase. Northern and western regions are more sen- sitive to policies. There are three major factors that can affect the contribution of regional agricultural policies, which are the process of national industrialization strategy, terrain and the level of local finance.Since reform and opening up, how much contribution has China＇s implementation of new agricultural policy made to agricultural output？ This paper is trying to establish an agricultural policy output econometric model for doing a quantitative analysis of China＇s new ag- ricultural policy. The results show that China＇s agricultural policies on agricultural output have an average contribution rate of about 7% since 1978, which is consistent with the OECD＇s basic forecast. There are obvious temporal and spatial differences. Generally speaking, we can divide the contribution of agricultural policy into three periods, which are the start-up phase from 1978 to 1991 （14 years）, the stationary phase from 1992 to 2002 （11 years） and the rising phase from 2003 to 2008 （6 years）. In space, the contribution of agricultural policy underwent a process from the all-low in the start-up phase, the gradual increase in the sta- tionary phase to the all-high in the rising phase. Northern and western regions are more sen- sitive to policies. There are three major factors that can affect the contribution of regional agricultural policies, which are the process of national industrialization strategy, terrain and the level of local finance.

关 键 词：EVALUATION agricultural policy econometric model China 

分 类 号：F320[经济管理—产业经济] F323