化工储罐间距和体积对爆炸碎片多米诺效应概率的影响  

Impact of gap and volume of storage tanks on domino effect of explosion fragments

作　　者：陈刚[1] 朱霁平[1] 武军[1] 王国栋 

机构地区：[1]中国科学技术大学火灾科学国家重点实验室,安徽合肥230026 [2]深圳市公共安全应急平台关键技术研究中心,广东深圳518057

出　　处：《火灾科学》2011年第1期37-42,共6页Fire Safety Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(91024027;30972380)

摘　　要：化工储罐爆炸后将产生大量碎片,这些抛射碎片一旦击中相邻罐体容易引发多米诺效应。碎片的抛射方位和抛射距离具有很大的随机性,已有研究多采用概率模型来描述碎片抛射的各分过程。通过总结和发展已有的分过程模型,建立了求取多米诺效应的综合概率模型,并基于蒙特卡罗算法编制了模拟软件,可对化工储罐多米诺效应的发生概率进行预测计算。选取若干常用化工球罐为相邻目标储罐进行实例分析,计算结果表明储罐间距和体积是影响多米诺效应发生概率的两个重要影响因素:随着距离的增大,多米诺效应发生概率不断减小;目标储罐体积越大,多米诺效应发生概率将越大。其中,爆炸碎片对目标储罐的击中概率受上述因素的影响程度更大。该文工作对化工储罐区的安全评价具有一定的参考价值。The fragments generated from an exploded chemical storage tank may induce domino effect after impacting with the neighboring tanks. Currently, some probability models are used to describe the sub-processes of projectile fragments, while the projection directions and distances of the fragments involve great randomicity, without accurate description. In this paper, an integrated probability model of domino effect is established by summarizing and developing the existing sub-process models, and a simulation software is also established based on the Monte Carlo algorithm. A series of typical chemical storage tanks are selected as the adjacent targets to calculate the probability of domino effect. The results show that the distance and the volume of target tank are two important factors which determine the probability of domino effect. When the distance increases or the volume of target tank decreases, the probability will decrease. The results are useful for the safety assessment of chemical storage tanks.

关 键 词：化工储罐 多米诺效应 碎片 击中概率 破坏概率 

分 类 号：X937[环境科学与工程—安全科学] TQ086[化学工程]