经济发展水平、产业结构与碳排放强度——中国省级面板数据分析  

CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSION AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT:A PANEL DATA ANALYSIS

作　　者：虞义华[1] 郑新业[1] 张莉[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学,北京100872 [2]中央财经大学,北京100081

出　　处：《经济理论与经济管理》2011年第3期72-81,共10页Economic Theory and Business Management

摘　　要：利用我国29个省市自治区1995—2007年的面板数据,本文分析了二氧化碳排放强度同经济发展水平及产业结构之间的关系。通过多项计量检验,比较了不同计量模型之后,笔者选取了能够修正面板异相关和自相关的可行的广义最小二乘法（FGLS）模型。研究表明,（1）碳强度同人均GDP之间存在＂N＂形关系。（2）第二产业比重同碳强度存在正相关关系,即第二产业比重越高,二氧化碳排放强度就越高。（3）对经济发展与碳排放之间关系进行的情景分析表明,如果产业结构不改变,没有实施另外的政策,经济增长速度本身难以引致碳排放强度的大幅下降,2020年二氧化碳排放强度下降40%~45%的目标难以实现。Using a panel data of 29 provinces during 1995—2007 in China's Mainland,this paper examined the relationship between per GDP carbon dioxide（CO2） emission and economic development.Through a series of model specification tests this paper compared several econometric models and eventually chose the FGLS model which allows controlling for panel heterogeneity and autocorrelation.The main findings were as follows： 1） a cubic relationship exists between CO2 intensity and GDP.That is,emission intensity falls at a decreasing rate to a point and at an increasing rate thereafter;2） the higher the ratio of secondary sector to an overall industry,the higher the emission intensity;3） there is no apparent ＂automatism＂ in the process of Chinese economic development to assure the CO2 emission intensity will fall substantially with rising GDP.The fulfillment of the agreement to reduce CO2 emissions per unit GDP by 40% to 45% of 2005 levels by 2020 is less plausible unless there is a structural break induced by the CO2 related policy change.

关 键 词：二氧化碳排放 环境库兹涅茨曲线(EKC) 面板数据 

分 类 号：F124[经济管理—世界经济] F121.3F205F224