一、二孩生育间隔及其政策意义--基于国际视角与中国情境的实证分析  

Birth Interval between First and Second Child and Its Policy Implications

作　　者：刘爽[1] 邹明洳[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学人口与发展研究中心 [2]中国人民大学社会与人口学院

出　　处：《人口研究》2011年第2期83-93,共11页Population Research

基　　金：教育部人文社科基地重大课题“中国特色人口转变道路的理论研究”成果的一部分,项目编号:05JJD840146

摘　　要：文章利用国内外人口生育调查数据,分析了不同类别国家、不同时期妇女一、二孩平均生育间隔的基本特征及其变化趋势,重点讨论了多年来中国育龄妇女一、二孩平均生育间隔的变迁及其主要特点。提出:一、二孩平均生育间隔在不同的社会具有某种共性,2年应是一、二孩平均"自然生育间隔"的下限表达。以往生育政策中对一、二孩生育间隔的限制性规定有其必要性和必然性,也取得了明显效果。随着群众生育观念的转变和自愿性延缓再生育现象的逐步出现,在"自然生育间隔"基础上社会干预生育间隔的政策作用空间正变得越来越小,为我们进一步调整和完善生育政策提供了机会与条件。Using data of international and national fertility surveys, this paper analyzes the characteristics and changing trends of average birth intervals between the first and second child in different countries and periods with a focus on Chinese women in recent decades. Analytical results indicate that there are some common traits of birth intervals between the first and second child of women in different societies, and a two - year interval is the lowest limit of average ＂natural birth intervals. ＂ It＇ s necessary to execute restricted regulations of birth intervals between the first and second child in former fertility policies, and it has already achieved great effect. However, with the change of people＇ s fertility desire and voluntarily delay of the second birth, it is increasingly difficult to intervene in birth intervals by fertility policy, and it will provide good opportunities and conditions for government to adjust and improve relevant fertility policy.

关 键 词：平均生育间隔 自然生育间隔 生育政策 

分 类 号：C924.21[社会学—人口学]