房地产调控政策的有效性分析--基于动态一致性  

Efficiency of Real Estate Industry Policy——Based on the Time Consistency Theory

作　　者：韩蓓[1] 蒋东生[2] 

机构地区：[1]北京大学光华管理学院,北京100871 [2]首都经济贸易大学经济学院,北京100070

出　　处：《经济与管理研究》2011年第4期22-31,共10页Research on Economics and Management

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目“通货膨胀预期形成与货币政策反应机制”(项目编号10YJC790073)

摘　　要：近几年,中国对房地产市场实施了一系列的宏观调控政策,但效果却不容乐观。本文从政策动态一致性的视角,对房地产调控政策的有效性进行了研究。首先简要介绍了动态一致性理论的主要内容和动态不一致产生的原因;然后,对我国房地产市场的发展历程和调控政策进行了回顾,并分析了我国房地产调控政策动态不一致的原因;最后,指出为提高房地产调控政策有效性,应制定兼具规则与灵活性的政策、建立政府良好声誉、协调中央与地方政府关系,还要充分考虑公众反应。The real estate industry has developed quickly in recent years. Though the government implemented a se- ries of policy to prevent the price of real estate rising too fast, the result is not optimistic. At first, this paper introduces the main contents of the time consistency theory. Then, it reviews the history and policy of China＇s real estate, which can be concluded that the policy is not time consistent. At last, in order to improve the effect of the government policy, we should make rules having elasticity in some extent, build credibility, coordinate the relationship between the central gov- ernment and the local government, and take the reaction of the private sector into consideration

关 键 词：房地产 政策 有效性 动态一致性 

分 类 号：F299.2[经济管理—国民经济]