基于可靠性理论的多失效模式老龄平台剩余寿命预测  

RELIABILITY-BASED REMAINING LIFE PREDICTION OF AGEING OFFSHORE PLATFORMS WITH MULTI-FAILURE MODES

作　　者：林红[1,2] 陈国明[1] 陈团海[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国石油大学(华东)海洋油气装备与安全技术研究中心,山东东营257061 [2]中国石油大学(华东)储运与建筑工程学院,山东东营257061

出　　处：《机械强度》2011年第2期302-307,共6页Journal of Mechanical Strength

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(50679083);山东省自然科学基金(Y2006F65);中国石油大学引进人才科研基金(Y1015006)资助~~

摘　　要：建立综合考虑平台结构构件的疲劳失效、腐蚀失效和静强度失效3种失效模式的可靠性模型。提出多失效模式下平台整体系统可靠度计算方法,分析不同失效模式对平台系统可靠性的影响。以可靠性理论为基础,考虑已服役载荷的验证作用,计算老龄平台系统在后继服役期内的可靠度指标,进而预测平台的剩余寿命。通过Monte Carlo实例模拟结果表明,文中研究为平台服役后期的剩余寿命预测提供更为合理的计算方法,区分不同服役阶段的构件失效模式,可为平台的检修决策提供依据。The reliability model for ageing offshore platform structure is established considering fatigue,corrosion and static strength failure modes.The reliability computing method is proposed for offshore platform system with multi-failure modes,and the influence of different failure modes on platform system reliability is analyzed.Considering the proof effect of prior service loads on ageing offshore platforms,the reliability index of platform in succeed service term is calculated.Therefore the remaining life of ageing platform is predicted based on the reliability theory.Numerical example by Monte Carlo simulation is given,and the results show that distinguishing different failure modes helps making inspection and repair decision.Through research a more reasonable computing approach for remaining life prediction of ageing offshore platform in late service period is provided.

关 键 词：老龄平台 多失效模式 寿命预测 可靠性分析 剩余服役期 

分 类 号：TE951[石油与天然气工程—石油机械设备] TB114.3[理学—概率论与数理统计]