SinoSCORE对CABG术后死亡和并发症的预测价值  

Predictive value of SinoSCORE on in-hospital mortality and postoperative complications after coronary artery bypass surgery

作　　者：苏丕雄[1] 刘岩[1] 顾松[1] 颜钧[1] 张希涛[1] 赵洋[1] 

机构地区：[1]首都医科大学附属朝阳医院心脏外科,100020

出　　处：《中华胸心血管外科杂志》2011年第2期71-74,共4页Chinese Journal of Thoracic and Cardiovascular Surgery

摘　　要：目的 评价中国冠状动脉旁路移植手术风险评估系统（SinoSCORE）对冠状动脉旁路移植（CABG）手术术后院内死亡及术后并发症的预测价值.方法 回顾性收集2007年1月至2008年12月期间行单纯CABG 手术的201例病人的围术期资料.应用 SinoSCORE模型（包含11个危险因素）预测术后院内病死率和主要并发症（胸部切口感染、肾衰、多肌器衰竭、围术期使用主动脉内球囊反搏等）.评价其的校准度与分辨力评价模型的预测能力.Hosmer-Lemeshow拟合优度检验评价模型校准度,利用ROC曲线下面积评价模型的区分度,并用Youden指数确定SinoSCORE预测术后并发症的最佳诊断界值.结果 201例病人平均年龄（63.3±9.2）岁,其中24.4%（49/201例）为女性,总体院内病死率1.99%（4/201例）.SinoSCORE模型预测病死率2.88%.SinoSCORE对术后院内死亡的发生有较好的校准度和区分度,Hosmer-Lemeshow拟合优度检验P=0.744（x2=4.304）,ROC曲线下面积为0.81（95%置信区间0.687～0.932）.SinoSCORE对术后肾衰、多脏器衰竭及围术期使用主动脉内球囊反搏（IABP）有较好的预测价值,Hosmer-Lemeshow拟合优度检验分别为P=0.75、P=0.75、P=1.00,ROC曲线下面积分别为0.768、0.832、0.737.SinoSCORE对上述3种并发症最佳诊断界值均为4.5.结论 SinoSCORE模型对CABG病人术后院内死亡和并发症具有较好的预测价值,适用于中国CABG手术风险的预测.Objective To evaluate the performance of the Sino System for Coronary Operative Risk Evaluation （ SinoSCORE） on in-hospital mortality and postoperative complications in patients undergoing coronary artery bypass grafting （CABG） in a single heart center. Methods From January 2007 to December 2008, clinical information of 201 consecutive patients undergoing isolated CABG in our hospital was collected. The SinoSCORE was used to predict hospital mortality and major complications[sternal wound infection, postoperative renal failure, multiple organ dysfunction syndrome, perioperative intra-aortic balloon pumps （ IABP）, etc.]after CABG among our study participants, which was initially designed as CBAG operative risk scoring system and included 11 risk factors. We estimated the predictable capability of SinoORE model by the means of analysing the calibration and discrimination characters of this risk scoring system. Calibration was evaluated with the method of Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test. Discrimination was tested by determining the area under the receiver operating characteristic （ROC） curve. The optimal cut-off point for SinoSCORE predicting major complications was obtained by the Youden index. Results Of all our study patients, the observed in-hospital mortality was 1.99% （4/201）. The overall mean baseline age was （ 63.3 ± 9.2 ） years and 24.4% （ 49/201 ） were female. The predicted mortality cakulated by the SinoSCORE was 2.88% which was slightly higher than the actual mortality. SinoSCORE model slwed very high discriminatory ability and the good calibration power in predicting in-hospital mortality： Hosmer-Lemeshow calibration test：x2 =4. 304, P =0.744 and area under ROC was 0. 81 （95% CI： 0.687 -0.932）. As for the major postoperative complications after CABG,SinoSCORE model still achieved a satisfactory performance with the good predictive value for the main complications risk evaluation such as postoperative renal failure, multiple organ dysfunction syndrome and IABP.

关 键 词：冠状动脉分流术 死亡 危险因素 危险性评估 SINOSCORE 

分 类 号：R654.2[医药卫生—外科学]