属性区间识别模型在溃坝后果综合评价中的应用  

A Comprehensive Assessment Model for Severity Degree of Dam Failure Impact Based on Attribute Interval Recognition Theory

作　　者：邹强[1] 周建中[1] 杨小玲[1] 何耀耀[1] 张勇传[1] 

机构地区：[1]华中科技大学水电与数字化工程学院,湖北武汉430074

出　　处：《四川大学学报（工程科学版）》2011年第2期45-50,共6页Journal of Sichuan University (Engineering Science Edition)

基　　金：国家"973"重点基础研究发展计划资助项目(2007CB714107);国家科技支撑计划资助项目(2008BAB29B08);水利部公益性行业科研专项资助(200701008)

摘　　要：溃坝后果严重程度综合评价是大坝风险评价与风险管理的重要组成部分。针对溃坝后果综合评价指标体系的模糊性与不确定性,以属性区间识别理论为基础,建立了溃坝后果综合评价的属性区间识别模型,采用均化系数将属性测度区间转化为综合属性测度;然后对熵权计算公式进行合理改进,并有效选择偏好系数将主客观权重有机结合得到了理想的组合权重;最后分别根据置信度准则、灰色接近度和样本评分准则进行溃坝后果等级识别和比较排序分析。实例研究表明,该模型简单方便、合理有效,为溃坝后果综合评价提供了一种新方法。The comprehensive assessment of severity degree of dam failure impact is an important part of dam risk evaluation and management.A comprehensive assessment model based on attribute interval recognition theory was established to analysze the ambiguity and uncertainty of the index system of dam failure impact,and the average efficient was used to transform the attribute interval measure into integrative attribute measure.Then the calculation formula for entropy weight was improved reasonably,and the favorable coefficients of subjective and objective weight were selected to get the combination weight.Finally,the rank and mark of the sample can be calculated by using the assurance criterion,grey close degree and the scoring rubrics.The practical application showed that this model is feasible and credible for the comprehensive evaluation of dam failure impact.

关 键 词：属性区间识别理论 均化系数 改进熵权 组合权重 灰色接近度 

分 类 号：P426.616[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]