经济预测模型在碳减排压力中的应用探讨  

Economic Forecasting Model in the Application of Carbon Emissions Pressure

作　　者：简晓彬[1] 施同兵[2] 刘宁宁[3] 

机构地区：[1]徐州空军学院财务系,江苏徐州221000 [2]徐州师范大学经济学院,江苏徐州221009 [3]徐州工程学院经济学院,江苏徐州221008

出　　处：《生态经济》2011年第4期43-46,69,共5页Ecological Economy

基　　金：2010年徐州市科技计划项目"徐州市新能源产业发展前景分析研究"(XC10B013);徐州市科技情报研究计划项目"徐州市发展低碳经济的思路及对策研究"

摘　　要：文章论述低碳经济与碳排放的内涵及意义,阐明影响碳排放的主要因素,进而以徐州市为例,在分析全市碳排放主要影响因素的基础上,着重利用时间序列曲线趋势外推和灰色关联分析两个经济预测模型探讨徐州市碳减排压力。预测结果表明:两个经济模型预测结论基本相符。从长期来看,至2020年,徐州市碳减排压力较小,但由于工业结构偏重、工业能耗弹性系数波动性大、能源结构单一等原因,徐州市面临短期及中期碳排放压力。Discusses low carbon economy and the connotation and significance of carbon emissions, expounds the influence factors of carbon emissions, which by Xuzhou city as an example, the analysis on the main factors affecting carbon based on time series, using the trend extrapolation and curve of grey relational analysis into two economic forecasting model of Xuzhou carbon abatement pressure. The predicted results indicate that two economic models predict conclusion consistent, longterm, to 2020, Xuzhou carbon emissions, but due to less pressure on the industrial structure, industrial consumption elasticity coefficient of volatility, energy structure, Xuzhou facing short-term and mid carbon emissions.

关 键 词：低碳经济 碳减排 时间序列曲线趋势外推 灰色关联分析 

分 类 号：F062.2[经济管理—政治经济学] F224