IBIS模拟东北东部森林NPP主要影响因子的敏感性  

Sensitivity analysis for main factors influencing NPP of forests simulated by IBIS in the eastern area of Northeast China

作　　者：刘曦[1] 国庆喜[1] 刘经伟[1] 

机构地区：[1]东北林业大学,哈尔滨150040

出　　处：《生态学报》2011年第7期1772-1782,共11页Acta Ecologica Sinica

基　　金：国家"十一五"科技支撑资助项目(2006BAD03A0703);林业公益性行业科研专项资助项目(200804001);黑龙江省自然科学基金(C200925);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目(DL09AA04);东北林业大学青年科研基金(09049)

摘　　要：IBIS(Integrated Biosphere Simulator)模型是生态系统过程模型,运行过程需要大量输入变量,包括植被、土壤和气候等。基于2004-2005年帽儿山不同植被类型净初级生产力(NPP)实测数据,修改了模型内部参数,使其更适合于我国东北东部地区NPP模拟。还展开了NPP对模型主要输入变量变化敏感程度的研究。结果表明:IBIS模型的输入变量中,叶面积指数(LAI)对模拟结果影响较大,且NPP对LAI增加/降低5%敏感性最强;在气候情景范围内,仅考虑单一气象因子作用,NPP对温度变化敏感性最小;对降水量反应敏感,并随降水量增多而升高。IBIS（Integrated Biosphere Simulator） model is an ecosystem process model,which requires extensive input variables involving vegetation,soil and climate,to simulate net primary productivity（NPP） and other variables.In this study,we validated the modified IBIS based on NPP measurements between 2004 and 2005 for different vegetation types in Maoer Mountain.The results showed that the modified model can be applied to simulate NPP in the eastern area of Northeast China.We also examined the sensitivities of NPP values to the variations of the input variables in IBIS model.Sensitivity analyses were used to determine which inputs potentially cause the greatest uncertainties in calculated NPP change.The sensitivity analysis of different vegetation types,including temperate evergreen needleleaf forest,temperate mixed broad-needleleaf forest,temperate hardwood forest,temperate softwood forest,mongolian oak forest,temperate mixed forest and cool temperate Dahurian larch forest.Three input variables for IBIS,including leaf area index（LAI）,temperature and precipitation,were selected for single factor analysis.The analysis was based on change rate（CR） and traditional sensitivity index（SI） with two fixed variables and the third one was given with a change of ±5%（or 1.5 ℃）,±10%（or 2 ℃） and ±20%（or 3 ℃）.Taking into account the uncertainties in the values of inputs,increased LAI was predicted to be with CR between-21.2% and-0.04% on NPP output and with a SI between 0.09 and 2.37 in absolutely among case studies,whereas the decreased LAI was predicted to be-12.66% and-0.71%,0.04 and 2.25 for CR and SI,respectively.Under both LAI increased and decreased,NPP may decrease because of light limitation,water and nitrogen cycle negative effect which may lead to a higher specific leaf area（SLA） and thus may slow down the photosynthetic rate.LAI sensitivity analysis results showed that leaf area index,especially increased or decreased 5%,had the greatest effect on NPP. Through the climate change s

关 键 词：净初级生产力 IBIS模型 敏感性分析 叶面积指数 温度 降水量 

分 类 号：Q948[生物学—植物学]