林木育种值预测方法的应用与分析  

Applications and analysis of methods for breeding value prediction in forest trees

作　　者：孙晓梅[1] 杨秀艳[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国林业科学研究院林业研究所,国家林业局林木培育重点实验室

出　　处：《北京林业大学学报》2011年第2期65-71,共7页Journal of Beijing Forestry University

基　　金：“十一五”国家科技支撑计划项目(2006BAD01A14)

摘　　要：育种值预测是遗传评价的核心。为了能恰当地选用适当方法估算林木育种值,本文概述了当前林木育种值预测的主要方法、原理及其在日本落叶松家系(亲本)及个体育种值预测和优良基因型选择中的应用。通过对各种预测方法应用结果的分析表明:对于平衡或近似平衡数据和无亲缘关系(或可忽略)的非平衡数据,最佳线性预测(BLP)、最佳线性无偏预测(BLUP)法均可以取得很高的预测精度,但考虑到计算的简便性,BLP法更为适用;对于有亲缘关系或具有不同遗传固定效应的候选材料,BLUP法更为适用;对于多性状联合选择,选择指数仍是理想的方法。最后对育种值预测方法的适用情况及存在问题进行了讨论。Prediction of breeding values（BV） is the major component of the evaluation of forest genetics. In this paper, we introduced the main methods and principles predicting the breeding values in forest trees and with special reference to Larix kaempferi, and discussed their applications in the prediction of breeding values and the selection of optimal genotypes. The results indicate that breeding values could be precisely predicted by best linear unbiased prediction（BLUP） or best linear prediction（BLP） based on balanced or quasi-balanced data as well as unrelated and unbalanced data. BLP was a simpler method, while BLUP was most suitable when predicting breeding values for the materials that are related or have different genetic effects. Selection index would be an optimal approach for multi-trait selection. Finally, we discussed the applications and issues of these two methods in the forest genetic evaluation.

关 键 词：育种值 最佳线性无偏预测 最佳线性预测 选择指数 

分 类 号：S722.3[农业科学—林木遗传育种]