西藏自治区科技进步贡献率的测算与预测:1990—2015  

The Calculation and Forecast of the Contribution Rate of Scientific and Technological Progress in Tibet

作　　者：朱帆[1,2] 余成群[1] 董冠鹏[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京100101 [2]中国科学院研究生院,北京100039

出　　处：《中国科技论坛》2011年第4期91-96,113,共7页Forum on Science and Technology in China

基　　金：国家科技支撑计划项目(2007BAD80B03)

摘　　要：本文以Cobb-Douglas为核心,以西藏自治区1990—2008年的统计数据为基础,综合运用最小二乘法、势分析法、调整法和经验法估计出资本和劳动力产出弹性。继而运用索洛余值法测算和预测1990—2015年西藏自治区的科技进步贡献率。计算结果表明,西藏自治区科技进步贡献率稳步上升,2008年达到了30.8%,预计2015年达到40.7%,但投资拉动特征明显。最后,基于测算与预测结果向自治区有关部门提出相关建议。Based on the statistics from 1991 to 2008 in Tibet Statistical Year book and using the Cobb-Douglas production function growth calculation model, this paper firstly gets the capital-output and labor-output flexibility by means of ordinary least squares, potential analysis, adjustment method and empirical method. On this basis, the contribution rate of scientific and technological progress from 1990 to 2008 in Tibet is calculated through Solow residual value. The research indicates that the contribution rate of scientific and technological progress of Tibet is rising among fluctuation, reaches about 30.8% in 2008 and 40.7% in 2015. However the problem of independence on investment input still exists. Finally, this paper proposes some policy recommendations to raise the contribution rate of scientific and technological progress of Tibet.

关 键 词：科技进步贡献率 索洛余值法 最小二乘法 势分析法 西藏 

分 类 号：F062.3[经济管理—政治经济学]