北太平洋海温异常对黑龙江上游冰坝的影响及其预报的研究  

Research North Pacific Oceam Surface Temperature Anomaly on the Influence of Ice Jam and the Forecast

作　　者：郭增红 于成刚[2] 

机构地区：[1]大兴安岭水文局,黑龙江加格达奇165000 [2]佳木斯水文局,黑龙江佳木斯154000

出　　处：《黑龙江大学工程学报》2010年第3期125-128,共4页Journal of Engineering of Heilongjiang University

摘　　要：在研究北太平洋海温异常对黑龙江冰坝的影响中,从预测黑龙江上游冰坝需要出发,利用反映北太平洋海域表面温度变化的分布型指数(该指数较好地表征出海温的年际变化特征及厄尔尼诺和拉尼娜事件),以及黑龙江上游水文站的封江水位距平构建了该站的冰坝预报模型,该模型可以较好地预测出黑龙江上游冰坝,实际预测结果表明,该方法是可行的,在冰坝预报中可以发挥重要作用。This article researches the influence of the Pacific Ocean surface temperature anomaly on the ice dam in Heilongjiang River.This article uses two indexes to construct the ice dam forecasting model.The one index is distribution index,which reflects the temperature changes of the Pacific Ocean surface and the phenomenon of Elnino and Lanina.Another index is the closing-river stage tested by the hydrologic station in the upstream of Heilongjiang River.The actual result shows this model can forecast the ice dam in the upstream in Heilongjiang River and also can play an important part in the ice dam forecast.

关 键 词：冰坝 厄尔尼诺 拉尼娜 北太平洋 

分 类 号：P338.4[天文地球—水文科学]