风险感知理论模型及影响因子分析  

Theoretical Model for Risk Perception and Its Factor Analysis

作　　者：孟博[1] 刘茂[1] 李清水 王丽[1] 

机构地区：[1]南开大学城市公共安全研究中心,天津300071 [2]天津市大港安全生产监督管理局,天津300270

出　　处：《中国安全科学学报》2010年第10期59-66,共8页China Safety Science Journal

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重点项目资助(70833003);国家科技支撑计划课题(200603746006)

摘　　要：笔者目的在于通过文献凝练,明确风险感知在现代风险评估体系中的重要性,分析风险感知研究中亟需解决的定量化分析等关键问题,并提出相应的解决办法。通过心理测量范式和社会认知模型等经典理论方法的研究,梳理总结出适用于风险感知研究的理论模型;同时,对风险感知影响因子进行了定量化测量并对文化理论进行了探讨。结果表明,情绪因子使得63%的人产生面对风险时的态度波动。其中,愤怒和恐惧是体现最为明显的情绪类型。风险目标因子则直接影响人们对风险等级的判断。文化理论等方法表明,面对风险人们因心理特征和个性差异有不同行为选择并形成4种不同类别的人群。最后得出,风险感知是风险中人群行为决策和风险判断过程的基础,其中情绪因子应为今后相关研究探讨重点。The purpose of this paper is to accentuate the importance of risk perception in modern risk assessment system by literatures reviewing,to analyze the key issues that urgently need resolving in the study of risk perception such as risk quantification,and to provide corresponding solutions.Based on the study of psychometric paradigm and social cognition models,a theoretical model appropriate for risk perception research is summarized.At the same time,the influencing factors of risk perception are quantitatively measured and the cultural theory is discussed.The results indicate that 63 percent of people will take on attitude fluctuations due to the influence of emotion factor when facing risks.Among them,anger and dread are the most outstanding.Risk target factor will directly affect people＇s judgment of risk level.Culture theory shows that,because of the differences of psychological characteristics and individuality,people faced with risk can be classified as four different types and each type will have different behavior choices.It is concluded that risk perception is a basis for the decision-making of people behavior and the risk judgment,and emotion factor is more important and should be emphasized in future studies.

关 键 词：风险感知 心理测量 情绪 风险目标 文化理论 

分 类 号：X913.4[环境科学与工程—安全科学]