全球气候变暖原因的争议  

Debates on the Cause of Global Warming

作　　者：王绍武[1] 罗勇[2,3] 赵宗慈[2,3] 闻新宇[1] 黄建斌[3] 

机构地区：[1]北京大学物理学院大气与海洋科学系,北京100871 [2]中国气象局国家气候中心,北京100081 [3]清华大学地球系统科学研究中心,北京100084

出　　处：《气候变化研究进展》2011年第2期79-84,共6页Climate Change Research

基　　金：国家重点基础研究计划:过去2000年典型暖期的形成机制及影响研究(2010CB950104)

摘　　要：综合分析了政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)与非政府间国际气候变化专门委员会(NIPCC)针锋相对的观点:是人类活动还是自然因素主导了过去近百年的气候变化。指出20世纪中期以来温度变化的事实支持人类活动影响的观点,但是在近百年中自然因素如太阳活动、火山活动或大洋热盐环流的变化,对温度的年代际变化有重要影响。有充分的古气候与古太阳活动资料证明过去千年中的中世纪暖期及小冰期,过去万年中的冷事件与太阳活动有密切关系。这说明在历史气候变化中太阳活动有重要影响。目前一种占优势的观点认为银河宇宙线影响了低云量使气候变冷,但是影响机制还有待于进一步研究。The controversial points of views of IPCC and NIPCC are reviewed.IPCC holds that the global warming is caused by the anthropogenic effect.However,NIPCC says,nature,not human activity,rules the climate.Observations of temperatures in the last one hundred years or so support the hypothesis of the anthropogenic impact,but natural factors such as solar activity,volcanism,and thermohaline circulation also take part in the modulation of temperature changes,especially in frequency band of inter-decadal variability.There is pervasive evidence for solar or cosmic ray forcing of the climate in time scale of last 1 ka to 10 ka,which proves that solar activity played an important role in the formation of MWP or LIA,and the cold events over the North Atlantic in the Holocene,though the mechanism responsible for the linkage of solar activity to the earth＇s climate is to be understood.Recently,the point of view that galactic cosmic rays can impact low clouds,thus resulting in climate cooling,is prevailing.However,its influencing mechanism is remained to be further investigated.

关 键 词：气候变暖 原因 争议 温室效应 太阳活动 银河宇宙线 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]