2011—2050年长江流域气候变化预估问题的探讨  

Research on Climate Projection for the Period 2011-2050 in the Yangtze River Basin

作　　者：曾小凡[1] 周建中[1] 翟建青[2] 苏布达[2] 熊明 

机构地区：[1]华中科技大学水电与数字化工程学院,武汉430074 [2]中国气象局气候变化中心,北京100081 [3]长江水利委员会水文局,武汉430010

出　　处：《气候变化研究进展》2011年第2期116-122,共7页Climate Change Research

基　　金：国家"973"重点基础研究发展计划课题(2007CB714107);国家"973"重点基础研究发展计划课题(2010CB428401);2010年中国气象局气候变化专项(CCSF-10-04)

摘　　要：利用长江流域1961—2008年观测气象资料,对IPCC第四次评估报告中12个全球气候模式及所有模式集合平均进行比较验证,结果表明:MIUB_ECHO_G模式对该地区降水模拟能力较强,NCAR_CCSM3模式对温度模拟效果较好。进一步利用MIUB_ECHO_G模式和NCAR_CCSM3模式结果在SRES-A2、-A1B、-B13种排放情景下的降水和温度数据,分析2011—2050年3种排放情景下长江流域降水和温度变化特征。结果表明,2011—2050年长江流域降水变化趋势不明显,温度呈增加趋势,增幅在2℃内。Simulation abilities of different global climate models（GCMs） are different for a specific region.To select the applicable GCMs to project climate change in the Yangtze River basin,observed climate data from 1961 to 2008 were used to compare the 12 GCMs from IPCC-AR4.The results show that MIUB_ECHO_G model had better simulation ability for precipitation than the rest GCMs,and NCAR_CCSM3 model had better simulation ability for temperature.Based on the projected data by the two models,future annual and seasonal precipitation and temperature anomalies for 2011-2050,relative to the reference period of 1971-2000,under the SRES-A2,-A1B,and-B1 scenarios,were analyzed.Projected precipitation does not show obvious changing trends under the three different scenarios and projected temperature shows continuous increasing trends with an increasing range within 2 ℃.

关 键 词：气候模式比较 气候预估 排放情景 长江流域 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] P423.3