农业对气候变化的脆弱性  

Research Progress in Agricultural Vulnerability to Climate Change

作　　者：陶生才[1,2] 许吟隆[1,2] 刘珂[1,2] 潘婕[1,2] 苟诗薇[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]中国农业科学院农业环境与可持续发展研究所,北京100081 [2]农业部农业环境与气候变化重点开放实验室,北京100081

出　　处：《气候变化研究进展》2011年第2期143-148,共6页Climate Change Research

基　　金：气候变化对中国粮食生产影响评价系统研究(GYHY200806008);973项目"北方干旱化与人类适应"(2006CB400505)

摘　　要：随着对气候变化研究的不断深入,气候变化脆弱性问题也得到了更多的关注。相对于水资源、森林等其他自然生态系统,农业受气候变化的影响最大,科学地评价其对气候变化的脆弱性,对于制定合理有效的适应对策具有重要意义。从气候变化脆弱性与农业对气候变化脆弱性的定义、研究内容和评价方法等角度综述了研究进展,在此基础上分析了目前该领域存在的问题,包括情景应用、方法和不确定性等方面,并展望了未来脆弱性评价的发展方向。With the deepening of climate change research,more attention has been paid to vulnerability to climate change.Compared with water resources,forests and other natural ecosystems,agriculture is more vulnerable to climate change,thereby scientifically assessing agricultural vulnerability to climate change is of great significance to rationally formulate effective adaptation strategies.Progresses in research of agricultural vulnerability to climate change are reviewed in this paper from aspects of definition,research content,evaluation methodology and so on.Besides,the problems existing in the current research,such as scenario application,methods,and uncertainty,are also analyzed,and meanwhile,the direction for future research is presented.

关 键 词：气候变化 脆弱性 农业 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] S162.59[农业科学—农业气象学]