资产价格、汇率与最优货币政策  

Asset Price,Exchange Rate and Optimal Monetary Policy

作　　者：朱孟楠[1] 刘林[1] 

机构地区：[1]厦门大学金融系,福建厦门361005

出　　处：《厦门大学学报（哲学社会科学版）》2011年第2期25-33,共9页Journal of Xiamen University(A Bimonthly for Studies in Arts & Social Sciences)

基　　金：国家社科基金项目"中国外汇储备风险测度及管理研究"(07BJY157)

摘　　要：资产价格和汇率会对货币政策的最终目标产生影响,而货币政策也会对资产价格和汇率的变动作出响应。在考虑包含资产价格和汇率的央行最优货币政策规则,采用最优化方法求解出最优货币政策的基础上,通过实证研究可进一步构建出我国央行的最优货币政策规则(或最优货币政策反应函数)。结论表明,我国最优货币政策规则首先应重点关注资产价格(股价),其次应注重国内物价(通胀)和汇率,以及货币供给的增速,最后才是产出缺口。我国应加快利率市场化进程,逐步实行利率政策为主导的货币政策机制;加强对资产价格的监控与管理,将资产价格的变化状况纳入到日常的管理体系中;综合运用多种工具以维持人民币汇率稳定。Asset price and exchange rate have an impact on the ultimate goal of momentary policies whereas the latter may react to changes of asset price and exchange rate. It is argued by conducting empirical studies based on careful considerations of the rules of optimal monetary policies of the central bank including asset price and exchange rate and by working out optimal monetary policies through optimal methods, we can further construct the rules （or the reaction functions） of optimal monetary policies of China＇s central bank. Our study indicates that the rules of optimal monetary policies should first of all give attention to asset price （ stock price）, then to domestic price （inflation） and exchange rate as well as the acceleration of money supply, and finally to the output gap. It is therefore suggested that China should speed up the marketization of interest rate, and gradually implement a monetary policy mechanism governed by the interest rate policy. In addition, we should enhance our supervision, control and management of asset price, taking the variations of asset price into consideration in our daily management system and maintaining the stability of RMB exchange rate through a rationalized application of a variety of implements.

关 键 词：资产价格 汇率 最优货币政策 GMM模型 

分 类 号：F830.31[经济管理—金融学]