基于气象适宜指数的四川盆地水稻气象产量动态预报技术研究  

Study on Dynamic Forecasting Technology of Meteorological Yield of Rice in Sichuan Basin Based on Weather Appropriate Index

作　　者：游超[1] 蔡元刚[2] 张玉芳[1] 

机构地区：[1]四川省农业气象中心,成都610072 [2]绵阳市气象局,绵阳621000

出　　处：《高原山地气象研究》2011年第1期51-55,共5页Plateau and Mountain Meteorology Research

基　　金：四川省气象局应用开发课题"四川省水稻气象产量动态预报技术研究";四川省发改委项目"四川省农业气象灾害监测预警评估系统"

摘　　要：利用模糊数学中的隶属函数原理,建立四川盆地不同稻区代表点的水稻生育期内逐旬光、温、水3个气象要素的适宜指数模型和综合气象适宜指数模型。并利用积分回归和相关系数方法确定水稻不同生育阶段的气象适宜指数对水稻气象产量形成的权重系数,建立各代表点的水稻自移栽至成熟阶段的动态气象适宜指数模型。最后利用动态气象适宜指数模型计算值与水稻相对气象产量建立回归预测模型,动态预测水稻气象产量增减趋势。结果表明,各代表点进入水稻抽穗期后的气象产量动态预测模型,均通过了显著性检验,可实现在水稻进入抽穗期后动态预测气象产量的变化。We used the membership function theory of fuzzy mathematics to set up appropriate index model and compositive meteorological appropriate index model,these models were established by using ten days light-temperature-water meteorological elements of rice growth stages of representative points of different rice region in Sichuan Basin,and using integral regression and correlation coefficient method to determine the weight coefficient,which was determined by weather appropriate index at different growth stages of rice and meteorological yield of rice.Then we set up rice dynamic weather appropriate index model of the representative points from transplanting to maturity.Finally,we established regression forecasting model by using calculated value of dynamic weather appropriate index model and relative meteorological yield of rice to predict trend of weather yield of rice.The results showed the dynamic prediction model of rice meteorological yield passed significant testing,and it can dynamic forecast change tendency of meteorological yield after the period from heading to flowering of rice.

关 键 词：四川盆地 水稻 气象适宜指数 气象产量 动态预测模型 

分 类 号：S162.5[农业科学—农业气象学]