哈尔滨市近50年气温的突变特征及趋势分析  

The Variational Characteristics and Trend Prediction of Temperature in Harbin Past 50 Years

作　　者：张金峰[1] 张丽娟[1] 陈红[1] 高玉红[1] 

机构地区：[1]哈尔滨师范大学地理科学学院,哈尔滨150025

出　　处：《中国农学通报》2011年第6期313-316,共4页Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin

基　　金：黑龙江省科技攻关项目(GC06C10302S8)

摘　　要：基于哈尔滨市气象站1951-2005年的气温观测资料,应用一元线性回归、高斯九点滤波、滑动T检验等方法对哈尔滨市气温变化的周期性、阶段性、倾向性,不稳定性等特征进行了分析,得出(1)哈尔滨市气温在20世纪50-60年代增温不明显,进入70年代增暖幅度开始增加,到了80-90年代增暖尤为显著;(2)哈尔滨市气温在1964年首次发生突变;春季气温在1957年首次发生突变;夏季气温在1973年首次发生突变;秋季气温在1984首次发生突变;冬季气温在1969年首次发生突变;(3)哈尔滨市气温近50年上升了1.9℃,气温的变化速率为0.38℃/10a;(4)各季节对哈尔滨市气温的增暖贡献以春冬为主,且主要集中在2～3月,夏秋虽有增加,但并不明显。Based on the weather station in Harbin from 1951 to 2005 the temperature observations,applied one-dimensional linear regression,the Gauss filters wave at nine point and glides the periodic,sliding T test and other methods of Harbin City,the cyclical changes in temperature and precipitation,stage,bias,instability and other features were analyzed with（1） The temperature in Harbin City in the 20th century warming is not obvious 50 to 60 years into the 70＇s warming rate began to increase,to 80-90 years is particularly significant warming;（2） temperature in Harbin in 1964 for the first time a mutation;spring temperature in 1957 for the first time a mutation;summer temperatures in 1973 for the first time a mutation;autumn temperature in 1984 mutation in the first place;winter temperatures in 1969 for the first time a mutation in;（3）The temperature in Harbin City for nearly 50 years increased 1.9℃,the temperature change rate of 0.38 ℃/10a;（4） in each season of the Harbin City contribution to warming temperatures in spring and winter-based,and is mainly concentrated in the 2 ～ in March,summer and fall has also increased,but it is not obvious.

关 键 词：气温 贡献 突变点 年代际变化 四季变化 侯变化 

分 类 号：K903[历史地理—人文地理学]