“3·11”日本大地震对能源市场的影响  

The impact of Japan’s"3/11"Earthquake on the energy market

作　　者：许永发[1] 单卫国[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国石油集团经济技术研究院

出　　处：《国际石油经济》2011年第3期1-5,104,共5页International Petroleum Economics

摘　　要：3月11日以来,日本地震、海啸、核泄漏三重灾害,造成社会经济重大损失。日本经济短期受重创,中期将提振,但长期低迷的局面不会改变;日本地震不会改变全球经济复苏大势;对中国经济的影响利弊共存,但影响有限。地震重创了日本能源体系,将引发全球油气市场供需出现一些新变化:日本部分炼厂关闭致使亚太地区石油供需结构发生变化,成品油价格可能上涨,轻重原油价差可能扩大;核电危机将促使日本大量增加LNG进口,并将影响全球能源结构;日本化工产品生产受到冲击,带动全球部分化工品价格升高。日本核电危机造成各国对核电安全的担忧,可能影响世界各国核电发展,导致油气需求增加、中长期油价走高。日本大地震启示中国:应完善对突发事件的应急响应机制;加快推进天然气价格机制改革,加快发展天然气;适当调整原油和成品油进出口结构,统筹运作;推进与资源国的能源合作,确保能源的长期稳定供应。Since March 11th the triple disaster(earthquake,tsunami, nuclear meltdown)which occurred in Japan have caused significant economic loss.The disasters will hit the Japanese economy in the short-term,and boost the economy in the medium-term,but the long-term flat trend in Japan’s economy will not change.Japan’s earthquake won’t change the general trend of global economic recovery.It will bring advantages and disadvantages to China’s economy,although they will be limited.The earthquake has damaged Japan’s energy sector and will lead to supply and demand shifts in the global oil market. Some Japanese oil refineries have shut down,causing structural change in supply and demand in the Asia-Pacific region.The refined oil price is likely to rise,the spread between light and heavy crude oil will widen,and Japan’s nuclear crisis will boost LNG imports and thereby affect the global energy balance. Chemical products in Japan will undergo upward price pressure, driving a worldwide increase in chemical product prices.Japan’ s nuclear crisis has raised profound security concerns which will affect the worldwide development of nuclear energy.The crisis will lead to increased oil demand and higher long-term oil prices.The Japan earthquake will prompt China to improve emergency response mechanisms for accidents,accelerate reform of natural gas pricing,prompt further development of natural gas,adjust the level of crude and refined oil imports and exports,and engage in stronger international cooperation with energy exporting countries to ensure long-term energy supply stability.

关 键 词：日本 地震 经济 油气供需 进出口 能源价格 天然气 

分 类 号：F416.2[经济管理—产业经济]