碳排放强度及其变化——基于截面数据定量分析的初步推断  

A research on influencing factors of carbon emission intensity

作　　者：吴殿廷[1] 吴昊[2] 姜晔[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京师范大学地理学与遥感科学学院,北京100875 [2]北京师范大学社会发展与公共政策学院,北京100875

出　　处：《地理研究》2011年第4期579-589,共11页Geographical Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(90102013);(NFFTBS-J0630532)

摘　　要：经济发展和环境破坏的双重挑战使碳排放成为社会关注的焦点。以世界112个独立经济体截面数据为依据,利用统计分析和计量经济学方法,建立人均碳排放、单位GDP碳排放与人均收入、城市化率、工业化率和服务业比例等影响因素之间关系的优选模型,概括总结出经济社会发展与碳排放强度关系的四阶段、五类型模式。随着人均收入水平的提高,碳排放强度存在长期收敛趋势。当前减少碳排放的关键在于发达经济体努力减少其奢侈性消费并对低收入经济体提供技术援助,特别是能源技术和高新技术援助;正处在工业化快速发展的地区要坚持走新型工业化道路,调整能源结构,加快技术改造,淘汰传统落后的生产工艺;优化聚落布局,建设紧凑型城市,发展现代服务业有利于碳排放的减少。The dual challenge of economic development and environmental destruction has aroused public attention recently. According to the cross-sectional data of 112 independent economic entities and econometric analysis, based on statistical analysis and econometrics, a complex quantitative model was established to elucidate the carbon emissions per capita and carbon emissions per unit GDP affected by the factors of per capita income, urbanization rate, industrialization rate, and proportion of service industry. Finally a four-stage and five-type model was generalized which reflected inner relationship between carbon intensity and socio-economic development. Accompanied by socio-economic development, the increase of carbon intensity has a convergence trend in the long range. The key to reduce carbon intensity lies in decrease of luxury consumption mainly conducted by developed economic entities and their technical aid to the low income economic entities, especially in energy technology and advanced technology aspects. Meanwhile, areas in the quick development of industrialization should pave a new industrial path rather than the following predecessors, to improve energy structure, accelerate technological transformation and abandon outmoded production technology. Moreover, optimizing settlement distribution, constructing compact cities and proceeding modern service industries should also be on their list.

关 键 词：碳排放强度 人均二氧化碳排放量 单位GDP二氧化碳量 社会经济发展水平 

分 类 号：X321[环境科学与工程—环境工程]