基于可计算一般均衡模型的出口退税政策效应分析  

ANALYSIS OF EXPORT TAX REBATE POLICY OF CHINA BASED ON COMPUTABLE GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM MODEL

作　　者：王会芳[1] 蒋雪梅[1] 徐山鹰[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院,北京100190

出　　处：《系统科学与数学》2011年第3期354-360,共7页Journal of Systems Science and Mathematical Sciences

基　　金：中国科学院知识创新工程重要方向项目资助(编号:KACX1-YW-0906)

摘　　要：使用Chinagem模型计算了我国2010年6月份出口退税率下调对我国经济以及各行业的影响.研究表明,此次调整导致我国GDP实际减小0.016%,投资、出口与进口分别下降0.075%、0.041%与0.116%,居民消费和政府消费上升0.005%,就业下降0.016%,"两高一资"行业受挫较大.同时,各个行业实施出口退税时,对该行业的影响表现为:将直接导致行业出口价格上升,出口量下降,从而国内销售部分增加;由于国内供给增加,进口有所减少;而总产出的变化则由于行业不同而呈现出不同的变化.与此同时,各个行业出口退税率的变化将导致上游行业产出下降,下游行业产出增长.This paper simulated the effects of China new tax rebate policy in June 2010 on China＇s economy and industries.The research found that,after export tax rebate down,the Chinese GDP would decrease by 0.016%,with investment,export and import down 0.075%, 0.041%,0.116%,respectively.Household and government consumption would both increase by 0.005%.Employment would decrease by 0.016%.The tax policy limited resource products and highly polluting products a lot.This paper also indicated that the implement of lower export tax rebate rate on industry would improve export price,but export and import would be limited.Output would vary by industry.At the same time,the output of unflow industry would decrease as well as downflow industry increase.

关 键 词：出口退税 可计算一般均衡模型 宏观经济影响 

分 类 号：F740.45[经济管理—国际贸易]