水文资料长度对隐随机优化调度规则的影响研究  

Influence of Hydrological Data Length on Implicit Stochastic Optimization for Reservoir Operation

作　　者：刘攀[1] 依俊楠[1] 徐小伟[1] 郭倩 

机构地区：[1]武汉大学水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室,湖北武汉430072

出　　处：《水电能源科学》2011年第4期46-47,157,共3页Water Resources and Power

基　　金：国家科技支撑计划基金资助项目(2008BAB29B09;2009BAC56B02);国家自然科学基金资助项目(50979072)

摘　　要：针对水库调度隐随机问题中所需水文资料长度问题,以三峡水库为例,基于1882~2001年径流资料划分率定期与检验期,并在率定期中抽取一定长度的连续水文资料系列编制隐随机调度规则,在检验期中予以评价。结果表明,采用70 a以上的水文资料编制调度规则可获得较稳定、可靠的水库调度规则,30 a以上资料即可满足工程需求。Based on the case of Three Gorges Reservoir,the length of hydrological series for implicit stochastic optimization（ISO） for reservoir operation is presented in this study.The runoff series from 1882 to 2001 are divided into parameter identification and validation period.Continuous hydrological data series of parameter identification period are extracted to establish implicit stochastic operation rules and further it evaluates effect with data in validation period.The results show that a least of 30 years hydrological series should be used in ISO methods and a length of 70 years series can produce robust and efficient operation rules.

关 键 词：水文资料长度 水库调度 隐随机优化 调度规则 三峡水库 

分 类 号：TV213.4[水利工程—水文学及水资源] TV697.11