基于ROA模型的DG投资及扩容决策  

Investment and Upgrade in Distributed Generation Based on ROA Model

作　　者：董全学[1] 姜丹微[1] 李晨[1] 田廓[1] 曾鸣[1] 

机构地区：[1]华北电力大学经济与管理学院,北京102206

出　　处：《水电能源科学》2011年第4期189-191,共3页Water Resources and Power

摘　　要：针对天然气价格的不确定性对投资及扩容燃气DG的影响问题,基于实物期权模型研究了不同水平的天然气价格波动下投资DG的门槛价。结果表明,时序投资及扩容较直接投资燃气DG在抵抗风险、降低成本方面更具有优势,为我国制定天燃气DG投资及扩容决策提供参考。The uncertainty of natural gas price has impacted on investment and upgrade in gas-fired distributed generation（DG）.This paper focuses on the investment threshold price of DG via real option models of different levels of natural gas price fluctuations.The results show that sequential and direct investment of gas-fired DG has advantages of resisting risk and reducing coast.Thus,it provides reference for decision-making of investing and updating in DG.

关 键 词：实物期权模型 投资及扩容 分布式发电 微网 

分 类 号：TM619[电气工程—电力系统及自动化] TM7