从内外需关系看中国经济增长的双轮驱动模式——基于非竞争型投入产出模型的实证研究  

On the Two-wheel-drive Model of China Economic Growth from the Perspective of Domestic and Foreign Demand Relationship——empirical study based on non-competitive input-output model

作　　者：任泽平[1] 张宝军[2] 

机构地区：[1]国务院发展研究中心宏观经济研究部,北京100010 [2]中央财经大学统计学院,北京100081

出　　处：《重庆理工大学学报（社会科学）》2011年第3期1-11,18,共12页Journal of Chongqing University of Technology（Social Science）

摘　　要：消费、投资和出口三大动力源泉对经济增长的贡献份额是评价一国经济增长模式的重要基准。当前国内外常采用国民经济核算公式或总需求公式来分析出口对经济增长的贡献,但这两种方法存在低估或高估出口对我国经济增长贡献的问题。为此应从"消费、投资和出口拉动的国内增加值"角度,建立区分加工贸易出口的非竞争型投入产出模型,来测算消费、投资和出口拉动的国内增加值对中国经济增长的贡献率。测算结果表明,从比重份额所反映的需求主体来看,中国经济符合大国以内需为主的一般规律;从贡献份额所反映的动力结构来看,中国经济增长模式具有双轮驱动的基本特征。The contribution share of consumption,investment and export to economic growth is an important criterion of evaluating the economic growth model of a country.At present national economic accounting formula or aggregate demand formula are adapted abroad to analyze the contribution of export to economic growth.With these two methods,there is,however,the problem of underestimating or overestimating the contribution of export to China＇s economic growth.Therefore,to estimate the contribution rate of domestic value added driven by consumption,investment and export to China economic growth,it is necessary to establish an non-competitive input-output model that distinguishes processing trade export from the angle of ＂domestic value added driven by consumption,investment and export＂.The estimating results show that from the perspective of demand mainbodies reflected from proportions,China economy applies to the general rule that a power country takes domestic demands as the core,while from the perspective of the driving structure reflected from contribution shares,the China economic growth model possesses the basic characteristics of two-wheel drive model.

关 键 词：内外需关系 经济增长模式 加工贸易出口 非竞争型投入产出模型 

分 类 号：F222.3[经济管理—国民经济]